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War in Ukraine may drag on – ISW

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The Russians plan to advance around Seversk and Bakhmut, as well as to keep the defense north of Kharkov and in southern Ukraine

The Russian occupation force has been carrying out limited ground attacks and has not advanced deep into Ukraine for several days.

The occupiers carried out minor ground attacks on July 17, returning from the so-called “operational pause”. At the same time, its end does not mean a new massive wave of ground assaults in several directions, despite the public orders of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. This indicates the prolongation of the war on the part of the aggressor country Russia to replenish large-scale losses, consider at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Russians plan to move around Seversk and Bakhmut, as well as to keep the defense north of Kharkov and in southern Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian occupation army continues to create conditions for the resumption of the offensive against Slavyansk, shelling settlements in the Izyum-Slavyansk direction. Artillery, rocket and air strikes throughout Ukraine also continue.

It is worth noting that on July 17 the Russian Ministry of Defense did not report on new territorial “achievements”, that is, the Russians did not even try to lie about the occupied settlements.

According to the forecast of military experts from ISW, the exit from the “operational pause” will be a gradual resumption of ground offensive operations. In all likelihood, the Kremlin is trying to establish long-term conditions for a resumption of forces in anticipation of protracted hostilities.

Earlier, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that if the war in Ukraine ends and peace is established on Russia’s terms, Western sanctions against the Russian Federation will not be lifted.

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