The Russian forces lost only a few vehicles, but their disoriented infantry surrendered to the attacking Ukrainians by dozens.
The ratio of equipment losses—large Ukrainian losses compared to relatively small Russian losses—is remarkable. On average, during the 29 months of Russia’s war with Ukraine, the Russians lost significantly more vehicles than the Ukrainians. Whether high losses are worth it for the general staff in Kiev depends on the objectives of the invasion and on whether the ratio of losses changes as the Kursk campaign unfolds.
According to calculations by analysts at Oryx, the Russian military has lost an average of four tanks and almost eight infantry fighting vehicles over the 905 days of the war. The Ukrainian military has lost an average of just one tank and three infantry fighting vehicles per day.
The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, however, is anything but average. By crossing the border through gaps in the Russian defenses, Ukrainian forces on August 6 restored movement in a war that had been stagnant for months, with both sides digging in on their fortification lines and struggling to advance no further than a few hundred meters at a time.
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War in Ukraine. Invasion of Kursk Oblast
But the Ukrainian maneuvers have exposed tanks and infantry vehicles to Russian drones, artillery fire, and the risk of ambushes. According to one Oryx analyst, the Ukrainians lost four tanks and 41 infantry vehicles in the first nine days of the invasion. The losses included a rare British Challenger 2 tank and several American-supplied Stryker fighting vehicles.
The loss of infantry vehicles—including tracked combat vehicles and wheeled armored personnel carriers—has been particularly painful for the Ukrainian armed forces. They are losing these valuable vehicles at almost twice the usual rate. And while the average loss rate is for the entire 1,000-kilometer front, losses in the Kursk region have been sustained on an 80-kilometer stretch. However, the loss of such valuable equipment may not worry Ukrainian planners, provided that the strategic benefits of the Kursk campaign justify the material costs.
If Jack Watling, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, is right in his assessment, Ukraine wants to capture the Kursk region to use in negotiations. As a bargaining chip, the region could be worth — so far — a few dozen armored vehicles.
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“The political aim of the operation is to build leverage ahead of eventual negotiations,” Watling wrote in The Guardian. “If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the threat of withdrawing military and technical assistance is likely to force Kiev to negotiate. The Ukrainian government wants to ensure that if it has to enter that process, it has advantages that Russia will be willing to trade for concessions.”
“The Ukrainian military must therefore occupy and hold a significant portion of Russian land pending potential negotiations,” Watling stressed.
It is also possible that, with the inevitable slowdown in the pace of the Ukrainian advance, the casualty rate will change. “There is a limit to how far these forces can go before they overextend themselves, which means they will have to dig in soon if the Ukrainians are to hold the ground until negotiations can take place,” Watling explained.
Invasion of Kursk: The Best-Scenario for Ukraine
“The best-case scenario for Ukraine is that its forces will dig in, and Russia, feeling forced to retake the area, will suffer excessive losses trying to push the Ukrainians back.”
In this respect, the fighting in Kursk may begin to resemble more closely that taking place on the front lines in Ukraine, where poorly trained Russian forces are suffering heavy losses as they try, usually unsuccessfully, to defeat entrenched Ukrainians.
For now, however, the Ukrainians are on the move and in the open space of Kursk Oblast. This leaves them defenseless and susceptible to losing far more vehicles than usual.
