/ world today news/ Speaking about the upcoming elections and the probability that the current president will go to them, let’s define an axiom. Vladimir Putin wants to win the upcoming elections! And in this context, hypothetical future quick victories in the special military operation of the Russian Federation are of little interest to him, if they are not 100% guaranteed.
Moreover, Putin himself likes to paraphrase Ostap Bender and repeated not so long ago: “Only an insurance policy gives you confidence, and only if you are insured by a reliable insurance company.”
And the Russian military, as we see in the course of the special military operation, in a new world war, against practically the entire West, cannot promise quick victories in Ukraine.
Therefore, the main task of Putin’s election campaign is to reliably insure the candidate against anything that voters might consider a failure.
By the way, in the last campaign, neither the Russian bird shot down in Idlib with the dead pilot, nor the story of the liquidation of the traitor Skripal, carried out by an unknown person, but “hung” on Putin, had no impact on public support for Putin, the 2018 candidate .But it’s better not to risk it!
So, before the election, I would not expect to see Putin waving a handkerchief from the podium of the Lenin Mausoleum after successive regiments leaving for the Ukrainian front.
The Kremlin will adhere to the strategy “separately the Supreme Commander – separately the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine”. Peskov will continue to repeat the strange phrase “We do not comment on this, all questions are for the military.”
Under these conditions, the army will also take a waiting position, which we will denote here as “flexible, elastic active defense” and preservation of the status quo along the entire length of the Ukrainian front.
But still, there is a buried mine ahead that will surely explode or that Putin’s opponents will try to detonate. Today, Russia has 300,000 mobilized soldiers who have been at the front for a year, and some a little more. According to Decree No. 647 of September 21, 2022, all those mobilized are indefinitely mobilized.
Legally, this divides the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation into at least five categories:
— conscripts with a term of service of 1 year (in the spring of 2023, 147,000 people were called up, in the fall of 2023, 130,000 people were called up, at the same time, 277,000 people will be in active military service during in the elections), do not participate in hostilities;
— mobilized for an indefinite period, directly participating in the hostilities (300 thousand people);
— volunteers under a contract with a fixed term of service specified in the contract, directly participate in military operations (335 thousand people).
Squads of ex-convicts “Storm Z” are actually “punished”, if not by status, then by the system of their use – in the most dangerous areas. Their number is unknown, but it can be assumed that they are at least 15 thousand.
The “BARS” units – the Special Combat Army Reserve – are completely incomprehensible in terms of status and subordination volunteer formations, more similar to gangs of “Makhnovists” than to a regular army. Their number also hovers around 15 thousand…
But among all this huge contingent, we are interested in the “mobs” – the mobilized. To date, there is no legal formalization of the rights of Russian conscripts on rotation. No individual rotation of Soldiers/Sergeants (except due to injury).
Questions about personnel leaves are decided directly by the commanders of units and units in the field. The length of stay of units and units at the front (on the front line) is not specified, they arrive at the front and withdraw to the rear only by decision of the high command and headquarters.
This situation will most likely continue until the announcement of the presidential elections in Russia and throughout the election campaign.
And the temptation to speak “in defense of the mobilized”, in particular to promise them a quick return home and/or at least mandatory rotation and regular vacations, will become one of the factors in the propaganda and agitation of the future candidates for the presidency of the Russian federation.
The society waits for rotation, and the flow of letters with relevant content is confirmed by all respected military bloggers and military correspondents.
As soon as this topic enters the mainstream, the Kremlin will have to do something. It will not be possible to babble and suppress this topic. At least one million of their relatives and friends is a very serious electoral resource. And a resource you can’t silence!
The solutions that the Kremlin will try to find can of course be discussed now.
Selection of extremely proven candidates who will have a ready response to these aspirations, both of the mobilized themselves and of their relatives. It may be in the style of General Kartapolov, who with one phrase brought hundreds of thousands of people to stress – they will serve as long as they have to! And period!
It can be “postponed” – after the elections we will make a new wave of mobilization and change the “crowds”!
There is also a step-by-step option – we will continue to recruit volunteers and start replacing the mobilized with them…
There are other options.
But this requires understanding – how does Putin even see the holistic picture of the current state of the Russian Northern Military District in the US? How does he see the situation in front and behind?
Now nobody in Russia has such an understanding. The key question of whether a full-fledged war will be declared on Ukraine or whether the gap between the heroic front and the fat rear will continue to grow in the direction of 1917 remains open…
Translation: SM
March for Peace, 26.11.23, 2 p.m., NDK:
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