There is information that North Korean troops dispatched to Russia will participate in the war in Ukraine as early as today. If Trump is elected in the US presidential election, which is less than a week away, relations surrounding Korea are expected to become complicated. For this reason, there are rumors of a geopolitical crisis in the Korean economy and stock market in November. Today we took the time to look into this issue. Editorial writer Han Sang-chun of the Korea Economic Daily is featured in the helpful remarks.
Q. The US presidential election is just 6 days away. Isn’t the financial market showing signs that the Trump trade is becoming stronger?
– Comedian Tony’s speech in support of Trump sparks controversy
– Tony, at the end of the presidential election, “Puerto Rico is a trash island”
– Signs of a Hispanic exodus, will it be an October surprise?
– Financial markets, Trump trade becoming stronger
– Following the dollar’s strength, Bitcoin is also strong… Over 70,000 dollars
– Dow, ‘growth rate curse’ a year ago ahead of 3rd quarter breaking news?
– Regarding the exchange rate, will Governor Lee, Deputy Prime Minister Choi, and even the President speak out?
– Pay attention to the ‘November geopolitical crisis theory’, which is more serious than the exchange rate
Q. You just mentioned the rumor of Korea’s geopolitical crisis in November. Didn’t the world commander-in-chief, who was supposed to play a mediating role, face hardships this year when there were many elections?
– This is an election year, and the more difficult it is for commanders-in-chief of major countries.
– Replacement of the highest commander-in-chief among G7 member countries, including Japan and the United Kingdom
– Macron, Schultz, and Trudeau have fallen in stature and cannot achieve the end of the war.
– On January 20th next year, President Biden will step down in the United States.
– S2 significantly weakens the status of commander-in-chief of the two socialist powers
– Xi Jinping’s long-term ruling system cracks due to prolonged economic recession
– Putin is in trouble due to the drain on national power due to the prolongation of the war.
– Absence of the central axis G7 and S2, ‘chaos in the world economic order’
Q. Yesterday, I talked about four scenarios for the 47th U.S. government. Isn’t the US presidential election going in a better direction for the global economy and our economy?
– 47th U.S. government draws attention to 4 major administration scenarios
– Trump Triple Crown, Presidency + Monopoly on the Senate and House of Representatives
– Trump Double Crown, one of the presidency + the Senate and House of Representatives
– Harris Triple Crown, presidency + exclusive use of the Senate and House of Representatives
– Harris Double Crown, one of the presidency + Senate and House of Representatives
– Washington politics, most interested in Trump Triple Crown
– Financial market, market focused on Trump’s triple crown
– Bitcoin exceeds $73,000, Trump Media ‘rises’ 4 times
Q. If Trump returns to power in a situation where the G7 and S2 already lack a role, won’t relations with China become more difficult?
– Trump: “The inflationary pain of the U.S. is caused by China’s export dumping”
– Prevention of export dumping, no Fed, president has full authority
– Mobilize all means including policy means and Super Article 301
– Large-scale tax cuts, likely to be compensated for by Asian countries such as China
– Pledge to abolish income tax, preserve public tariff at 200%
– Compensation through free-riding regulations and U.S. contributions to Korea
– Tariff bomb and friction with China… US economic slowdown
Q. China’s response is also accelerating. Aren’t they already taking measures to target Trump’s return to power?
– Trump’s first term, ‘Navarro paradigm’, denying the existence of China
– Navarro Paradigm, “China is evil, the source is the Communist Party”
– China policy failure during the first term of office… The gap with the US is narrowing
– Trump’s second term, hard-line policy toward China based on reflection on his first term
– Xi Jinping, in crisis, invades Taiwan under the guise of “one country, one system”?
– Forecasting agency “Trump’s election is the biggest risk to the global economy”
– China strengthens solidarity at BRICS summit led by Xi Jinping
– China sells dollar holdings and government bonds and withdraws US investment assets
Q. In neighboring Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who suffered a crushing defeat in the House of Representatives election, is trying to hold on. Aren’t you a strong disarmament advocate?
– Ishiba, who has a strong desire for power, ‘persevered’ despite crushing election defeat
– Ishiba seeks additional coalition rather than voluntarily resigns as expected
– Where will Ishiba, whose status has been weakened, find a way out?
– Designed externally rather than internally, militaristic orientation
– Militarism orientation, transition from ‘defensive’ to ‘offensive’
– Asian version of NATO initiative, defense network between Asian allies
– Japan’s rising geopolitical risk could be a good way out
Q. The problem is our country. If Trump is elected in the US presidential election, aren’t there rumors of a geopolitical crisis in November?
– Friendly relations with Trump, Putin and Kim Jong-un?
– Putin continues to welcome Trump’s return to power
– Kim Jong-un improves relations with Putin rather than Xi Jinping, targeting the United States
– Trump boasts about his relationship with Kim Jong-un every day during the presidential election
– Slamming Korea for free riding on security
– Complicated development of four- and six-party relationships surrounding the Korean Peninsula
– Four-party relationship, Trump + Putin + Ishiba vs, Xi Jinping
– Six-party relationship, bias toward the U.S. and Korea’s estranged position from China?
– The reality of the ‘November geopolitical crisis theory’ surrounding Korea
Q. I have been pointing out this problem for a year now. Isn’t the situation more difficult now?
– A year ago, attention was paid to the Korean stock market due to increased geopolitical risks.
– Ukraine-Russia war lasted more than 1 year and 6 months
– Concerns about the Israel-Palestine war continuing for a long time
– One year later, the geoeconomic risk on the Korean Peninsula reaches its peak.
– Disarmament advocates such as Trump, Ishiba, Putin, and Kim Jong-un appear.
– North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine-Russia war, what is South Korea’s position?
– Global Geopolitical Index (GPRI), ‘highest ever’
– Korea needs to prepare countermeasures for Trump Triple Crown scenario
Until now, Han Sang-chun was an editorial writer for the Korea Economic Daily.
PD Kim Chae-eun [email protected]
