/ world today news/ Make Polska Great Again – this is clearly the principle they are trying to guide themselves in Warsaw in the last year. Unofficially, Poles are increasingly talking about Poland’s territorial claims to Ukraine and the need to “take back what belongs to them”, while Russian political scientists do not rule out that Poland can take advantage of the moment and “eat” several western Ukrainian regions at once.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a history lesson to Polish authorities, recalling that its western territories were a gift from Joseph Stalin. He also admitted that the Polish authorities rely “under the umbrella of NATO” to form some sort of coalition and directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, in order to then tear off a larger piece for themselves in order to regain, as they consider, their “historical” territories – today’s Western Ukraine”. The Russian president stressed, that Warsaw apparently has similar plans for the Belarusian territories.
At the same time, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, admitted during a visit to St. Petersburg that he was getting “stressed” by the representatives of PMC “Wagner” stationed in field cities on Belarusian territory.
At the same time, the Belarusian leader noted that the “Wagnerians” had asked him for permission “to go on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszów”. Lukashenko did not specify the nature of such a walk by the participants of the private military company.
Belarusian political scientist Alexey Dzermant, commenting on IA Regnum, highlighted the political signals to Poland’s leadership that Minsk has ties to forces with combat experience that can be included in the Polish direction in case of “aggression or actions contrary to our security interests”.
„This is a clear political signal that the “Wagnerians” can be used in the confrontation with Poland. It is important for the Polish leadership to understand that we have different tools: it is not only the Belarusian army, not only nuclear weapons, but also a hybrid tool that looks both Russian and already Belarusian, but can also act as an independent unit.
And then the Poles should prove who is fighting whom. This is a political signal to Poland to moderate its appetites not only in Belarus, but also in Ukraine.” said Dzermant.
He recalled that PMC “Wagner” is not the only force that will protect Belarus: “Yes, she is very powerful, experienced, one of the key forces in this confrontation. We know there are many. I think it’s not a thousand people, but maybe tens of thousands. There is also a Belarusian army, which is also not so small and which adopts Wagner’s experience. Finally, there is the Russian army. There are several tools here that can be used in the confrontation with Warsaw, if suddenly it happens.
Military expert Anatoly Matviychuk, commenting on IA Regnum, noted that the Poles are taking very active steps to escalate the situation on the border with Belarus.
„They transferred a mechanized division to the border with Belarus, deployed a brigade 40 km from Brest, and the sapper battalion, which was announced by the Polish Minister of Defense, will be deployed in the Suwalki Corridor. Lukashenko decided to play on the fact that the “Wagnerians” are on his territory and the PMC is today a fairly organized and combat-ready organization. And in this regard, why don’t they give such a tone that they want to pass through the territory of Poland with weapons?
That is, Lukashenko in a veiled form says that they have an organization that can bring a lot of trouble to Poland. And Putin, for his part, states that the territories given to Poland after World War II, after de-Sovietization and decommunization, are legally an illegal acquisition.” Matviichuk said.
According to him, both Putin and Lukashenko are now playing “a purely political game on the nerves of the Poles” warning them that such actions have double-edged consequences: the Belarusian army must also help the Wagnerites, because PMCs cannot perform such functions alone. But their forces are sufficient for sabotage.
The Polish publication Gazeta Wyborcza reacted to Vladimir Putin’s words by calling them “pure propaganda” . It is noted that more important than the content of the statements of the Russian leader “is their timeliness” since “if you look at Polish-Ukrainian relations lately, it is not difficult to see that they are in crisis”.
„Putin knows about every problem, every grievance, every wound in the relations of such close allies as Poland and Ukraine. That is why he tries to deepen them, ” says the newspaper.
The chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Polish Sejm, Radoslaw Vogel, is certain that Putin used materials prepared by the Foreign Intelligence Service aimed at inciting conflict between Poland and Ukraine, undermining confidence in Poland and creating the impression that Warsaw has territorial claims to Kiev.
„Military cooperation between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine has existed for a long time, including within the framework of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO countries, and is aimed at supporting Ukraine and training Ukrainian troops.” Vogel said.
The Polish Foreign Ministry promised to summon the Russian ambassador – this is how Warsaw reacted to the words of the President of the Russian Federation that the western territories of today’s Poland are “Stalin’s gift to the Poles”.
Anatoly Matviychuk believes that in the event of Poland’s invasion of Ukraine, the use of Wagner is possible, and this option has most likely already been played out and calculated.
„It is not in our interest for the Poles to enter the territory of Western Ukraine. It is hostile to us, but when the Poles appear there, the threat to us will double,” noted the specialist.
Alexiy Dzermant also believes that such a use of Wagner is possible, since Poland will most likely not enter Western Ukraine under its own flags.
„It will be a hybrid form of occupation that will be disguised as if the Ukrainian government itself has invited them and they are under an agreement. This will be presented as some form of alliance, but in reality it will be control of the territory by the armed forces. In this regard, we will not respond with the introduction of troops, but we will respond in hybrid ways, and PMC Wagner is one of the methods of hybrid confrontation that can be used on the territory of Western Ukraine “, said Dzermant .
In the event that Russia and Belarus see that Poland has indeed begun plans to “soft annexation” of Western Ukraine, then the response of both countries can be exactly that, concludes the expert.
Translation: ES
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