After Prigozhin was keen for a long time to remain in the shadows, he came out to the public last fall to reveal that he is the leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, adopts military victories and declares his responsibility for establishing “electronic armies” that launch campaigns of misinformation and manipulate public opinion, especially in African countries, establishing himself in the scene. Russian politician.
Western analysts interviewed by AFP said no informal player had ever gained such importance in Russia’s operations abroad, but Prigozhin’s rise remains fragile.
“He is praised and criticized at the same time,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, an expert on Russian issues at the Carnegie Group, and his real links to President Vladimir Putin raise many stories and speculations.
She explained that every victory he achieves promises him a brilliant future, and every failure portends a near fall, but “at the present time, none of the stories about him seem completely realistic.”
Everything about the businessman is controversial and divisive, especially his criminal past, as he spent nine years in prison for theft and fraud, and his sharp-tongued statements.
“This is what we call the ‘violence investor’, a person coming from the circles of crime who has always used verbal and physical violence as a means to serve his interests,” explained Maxime Audinet of the Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School in Paris.
Post-Putin era
It is clear that his interests now extend to the political circle. “He seeks to enter the field of populist nationalism, which has been witnessing internal conflicts since the death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the historic leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (extreme nationalist) in April 2022,” Maxim Udinet added.
He pointed out that “this segment of the Russian political fan may be very promising in the post-Putin period.”
The businessman denied that he was seeking to establish a movement, but he occupies a position that is not commensurate with his actual influence, as he did not work directly with Putin and was never one of his friends, and he had no contact with the Kremlin except indirectly.
“He may have a blank check from Putin within his powers… but outside this circle, he is politically defenseless,” Tatiana Stanovaya said.
Maxim Udine said Prigozhin “does not belong to the first circle of Putin’s regime”, but “it may be that he took pride as a result of his growing fame. Although he has no official status, the former thief of Leningrad has become a side that cannot be circumvented.”
In fact, the Wagner Group has achieved real military victories in Ukraine and is advancing in Africa, where it is stationed in Central Africa and Mali despite Bamako’s exile. It has been active in Mozambique and is trying to establish a presence in Burkina Faso.
competition with the army
And Prigozhin has many enemies, as he does not hesitate to regularly denounce the army, its chief of staff and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu himself.
In this context, he urged the Russians on Wednesday to put pressure on the army to provide its fighters with ammunition, and said, “The missiles are there, but careerist politicians, scoundrels and dirty people should sign them.” As a result, on Thursday he announced that he had sent ammunition to his elements in Ukraine.
Peter Ruff of the Hudson Institute in Washington said that “Prigozhin provides Putin with a third party through which he can vent resentment” towards the army, which has been facing a difficult situation in Ukraine for a year, noting that it undoubtedly enjoys financial support from the Russian state.
However, “his dispute with the Ministry of Defense is at the system level. He receives huge sums of money from the state at the expense of the military,” according to what Denis Korotkov, a Russian investigative journalist from the “Dossier Center”, told AFP.
He stressed, “He has almost no friends or allies” in the army, considering that his statements on Wednesday indicate that “he does not have a direct line of communication with Putin, or that this line of communication has been severed.”
By recruiting fighters for weeks in prisons, he drew condemnation from the judiciary, and became on the radars of the intelligence services.
And if Prigozhin allows himself anything, then “his relationship with the state is informal and therefore fragile, and it may be severed without warning,” according to Tatiana Stanovaya.
Peter Ruff confirmed this, saying, “What is true today may not be true tomorrow. It is impossible to predict the outcome of power struggles in Russia.”
