/ world today news/ Tsargrad analyzes publicly available data on the movement of the PMC “Wagner” convoy to the capital. We publish a framework forecast of upcoming events based on available information.
Detachments of PMC “Wagner” continue to move towards the capital. From the first half of Saturday, June 24, the “orchestra” crossed the Rostov and Voronezh regions and was in Lipetsk by noon. The movement of the columns takes place along the M4 highway, which leads through Domodedovo and Vidnoe to the Moscow ring road and Vostochnoe Biryulovo district.
Roads to Moscow
To date, army aircraft are known to have dropped high-explosive bombs on the carriageway of the M4 motorway. There is at least one video on the web showing the defeat of a truck, possibly belonging to the PMC. However, the reliability of these photos has not been officially confirmed.
In general, the photos and video materials received so far allow us to assert: the ground units of the Russian army are not at war with the “Wagnerians”. They also try not to use weapons, preferring to bypass the barriers placed in their path.
Apparently, for now, the only force trying to stop the movement of the PMC with weapons is the army aviation. According to the PMC, their anti-aircraft systems have already destroyed three helicopters.
The tactics of the “Wagnerians”
So far, it can be said that the PMC has not begun to gather all available forces in one huge column, which would be a tempting target for aviation, rocket launchers (RSLS) and operational-tactical complexes. Instead, the “musicians” have formed small tactical groups that march towards the capital under the cover of anti-aircraft systems, among which are not only the relatively old “Wasps” seen by eyewitnesses, but also the newest “Pantsirs”.
As part of this tactic, it is logical to expect that some of the PMC forces will head towards the capital via other routes to prevent blocking the only route. The Lipetsk region provides good opportunities for this: “Wagnerians” can partially “jump” on the E119 highway, entering it north of Tambov, and from there continue to the capital or go even further east, in the Ryazan region, on the E30 highway. Also, PMC groups can turn to Orel and from there move to the capital along the E105. Such a maneuver would be the application of the old principle “Move separately, fight together”.
In general, they can take almost any route leading to the capital from the south, southeast and southwest. The dense road network will allow them to maneuver, even leave the tracks. And the closer to the capital, the more such opportunities they will have.
When they move in relatively large groups, capable of destroying police or even special forces posts, they will not meet any real resistance in their path. The only exception is if they are opposed by a large part of the MoD with armored vehicles. However, such a scenario would be the start of a fratricidal war and the collapse of the entire state, which would be another terrible defeat for the Russians, comparable to the 17th century riots.
Will there be enough power for Moscow?
If Prigozhin’s claims are to be believed, he has no intention of seizing power in the country, but seeks to replace the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. It is therefore unlikely that his troops will seek to establish control over the entire metropolis of 15 million. 100,000 army is not enough for that. Most likely, the “musicians” will try to take control of key buildings and force their opponents into dialogue. In this case, the answer to the question of whether the Wagnerians have enough or not enough forces depends only on the number of these targets and on the fierce resistance that the PMC will meet.
At the same time, it should be understood that the fighters from the “orchestra” are the best specialists in urban combat. It is also clear that the beginning of real military action, whether it is attempts to take over the Kremlin or the National Defense Command Center, could very likely mean the end of historical Russia.
What of this?
Unfortunately, the ability to officially confirm all publicly available data is limited. But one thing is clear. Politically, the balance of existing forces has already been disturbed. The infamous “Kremlin Towers” shudder. Some people may have to leave.
But as a set of administrative and economic structures and institutions, Russia has not suffered significant damage. Bye. But decisive action is needed. The country froze in uncertainty, not knowing what world it would wake up to tomorrow. And we are talking about the threat of a historic defeat that our people may not survive. We really want to believe the previously announced forecast of the Russian Foreign Ministry: The situation will find its solution worthy of the age-old wisdom of the Russian people and the Russian state.
Translation: PI
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