Yevgeny Prigozhin’s threats to the Russian military leadership are becoming increasingly bold. The boss of the private mercenary army Wagner now lays out his ultimate trump card: give us ammunition or we will withdraw from Bachmoet. The war with the “bastards” in the Kremlin seems complete.
“Look, here are our boys, their blood is still warm. Film them all and listen to me, you assholes. These are goddamn fathers and sons. Shogoe! Gerasimov! Where the hell is our ammunition? Then look at them, you bastards.”
Boiling with anger, Yevgeny Prigozhin recorded a video late Thursday evening, behind the front in Bachmut. Behind him, in a field, lay the bodies of dozens of warriors from Wagner’s private mercenary army. They were the Russian victims of yet another day of street fighting in the front city in eastern Ukraine. Victims who, according to Prigozhin, should not all have died, if only Wagner had received enough ammunition from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Supreme Commander Valeri Gerasimov.
“You are in expensive clubs, your kids are enjoying life and making YouTube videos, while we have no ammunition,” the diatribe continued. “And you think you have the right to dispose of the lives of these fighters. They came here voluntarily and died so that you could feed yourself in your offices.”
‘Licking Wounds’
A second salvo in the outright declaration of war followed barely hours later, with both a new video and a written statement. “I officially address the Chief of the General Staff, the Defense Minister, the Supreme Commander and the Russian people. I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters and on behalf of the Wagner command that on May 10, 2023 we are forced to hand over positions in Bachmoet to Ministry of Defense units.”
Continuing to fight without ammunition would “condemn Wagner to a senseless death,” said Prigozhin. What is “remaining of Wagner” by Wednesday will be sent to the barracks behind the front “to lick his wounds”.
Prigozhin has been at odds for months with “the semi-military bureaucrats in the Kremlin”, who he says are jealous of Wagner’s success and do not allow him his growing influence and popularity. According to Prigozhin, the Wagner fighters are the only ones making progress in eastern Ukraine, and the near-conquest of Bachmut is solely due to them.
Deadline 9 May
According to Prigozhin, he had been ordered to take Bachmut completely by 9 May. They almost succeeded: after months of bloody fighting, Russia now owns about 90 percent of the city.
“But since May 1, the bureaucrats have almost completely cut us off from ammunition. Due to a 90 percent deficit, our losses are growing exponentially every day. Nevertheless, we have decided to hold our positions and continue the offensive until May 10, so as not to disturb Victory Day on May 9.” On Tuesday, Russia will commemorate the Red Army’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Whether Prigozhin will carry out his threat remains to be seen. It may be an attempt to lure the Ukrainians into a trap with local counter-attacks. Ukraine now only controls the extreme western part of Bachmut, but still seems to have no intention of giving up the city. The front has barely moved in recent days.
Propaganda
In any case, the statements form part of a propaganda war with the intention of coming out of the battle as heroically as possible. If the ammunition remains behind, it is already clear who the scapegoat is. If supplies do start up again, then the extortion has worked. “And if Bachmut were finally captured, Prigozhin could take credit for emphasizing that the Russian army and its leaders failed to achieve any of the objectives of their winter offensive,” said Rob Lee, an analyst at the Amerikaanse Foreign Policy Research Institute, in an analysis. “Little likely that Shoigu and Gerasimov are looking forward to that moment.”
However, Wagner received preferential treatment for a long time, says Lee. The fact that ammunition is now being withheld is probably mainly because the army is preparing for the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive, and is understandable in that sense. “The Ministry of Defense has to defend the entire front, while Prigozhin only cares about Bachmut.”
Caterer
The question is therefore how far the army command, and especially President Putin himself, want to go with Prigozhin. The man who once started out as the president’s favorite caterer now seems to have completely fallen out of favor. Prigozhin has not forgotten how at the beginning of this year Putin overthrew his favourite, General Sergei Surovikin, as top commander in Ukraine in favor of Gerasimov. That decision was already seen as an attempt to curtail Prigozhin’s ambitions – which may also be political in the long run.
Time and time again in recent weeks it seemed that the boiling point had been reached. Yet the Kremlin also always seemed to realize that it needed the cheap Wagner troops with their thousands of recruited prisoners if it was to get anywhere with its winter offensive. That clemency may well come to an end now that that offensive has failed and Wagner’s fighting power has been severely diminished – according to the US, 20,000 Russians have died in Ukraine since December, half of them Wagner fighters.
