The case will be updated beyond Thursday, including comments from the head of TBU.
And the magic number is the revised estimate from the technical calculation committee (TBU) for what the price increase will be this year. Three weeks ago estimated TBU price growth this year to 2.6 percentnow the estimate has been adjusted up to 3.3 percent.
The revised figure for inflation is seen as the lower limit for wage growth and is intended to ensure wage earners real wage growth:
That wages rise more than prices. This is what the employee organizations expect.
Stein Lier-Hansen, CEO of Norsk Industri, is not surprised that there was an upward adjustment. He stated to Nettavisen on Wednesday that whether they can live with the demand for real wage growth depends on how low or high the expected price growth will be.
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– Much worse
– If the committee maintains the preliminary estimate of 2.6 per cent, it will be easier to find a solution that meets the needs of both parties. But if a price increase, for example, is raised to 3.2 percent, it will be much more complicated, Lier-Hansen told Nettavisen on Wednesday. So it got worse than Lier-Hansen feared.
– The estimate was much worse than I feared. This makes the negotiations much more complicated, and the negotiation room is almost zeroed out, says Lier-Hansen to Nettavisen after the figures are known.
– Fellesforbundet has as its main goal and ensure to improve the purchasing power of its members, we aim to ensure the competitiveness of the export industry, he continues.
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4 percent
Chief economist Kjetil Olsen in Nordea Markets says in a short comment on the new estimate that it makes the wage settlement even more demanding
– We maintain a total wage growth of 4 percent, and that the wage framework does not fall below 3.5 percent.
– It may be that the framework itself will be somewhat higher, if anything, it pulls in the direction of a higher wage growth, says the chief economist.
The war affects
A press release on Thursday states that as a result of new information, the committee has today made a new assessment of the forecast for consumer price inflation. The committee thus estimates a growth in the consumer price index (CPI) of 3.3 per cent from 2021 to 2022.
According to the press release, the change is related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions. It primarily affects energy prices, but also the prices of other important raw materials and foods. These prices have risen sharply, in addition there are bottlenecks in the production of goods and services.
According to TBU, these bottlenecks will probably also affect future developments as a result of the war.
The Committee emphasizes that the Uncertainty for 2022 is extraordinary and particularly linked to the war in Ukraine. The sanctions against Russia create uncertainty and the effects this has on energy prices, food prices, the krone exchange rate and the bottlenecks this year.
Predictions for what inflation will be this year vary. Nordea Markets writes in a comment to them recent consumer price figures from Statistics Norway that the total price increase this year is expected to be in the range of 3-3.5 per cent.
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Real wage growth
It is worth noting that TBU’s estimate is for average price increases from 2021 to 2022, not what prices increase with during the year.
Recent figures from Statistics Norway on Thursday show a total price increase from February 2021 to February 2022 of 3.7 per cent, but that inflation will probably fall over the year.
Fellesforbundet and Norsk Industri began wage negotiations on Wednesday. About the TBU figures, among others, Fellesforbundet’s leader Jørn Eggum told Nettavisen:
– I’m more uncertain than ever about what’s coming. I was surprised by 2.6 when we see the rising power prices and with a price increase in 2021 of 3.5 percent.
– But we have no better estimate than TBU. To say that TBU is wrong, then I think we will get a demanding settlement. It will increase, but how much it will increase beyond 2.6 percent, I’m not sure.
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3.5 percent
The starting point for Fellesforbundet in this year’s settlement is real wage growth.
– But we will not weaken our competitiveness. In some countries with which we compete, the forecasts are for a wage increase of 3.5 percent, Eggum said on Wednesday, ie before the figures became known. He promised that they would not “rob the corporate coffers”.
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