BJØRVIKA (Nettavisen Økonomi): Three weeks ago, the technical calculation committee (TBU) came up with, among other things preliminary estimates for inflation this year. This estimate is often seen as the floor for wage growth and was 2.6 per cent for 2022.
Just after lunchtime on Thursday, the final estimate comes from TBU, and it will most likely be adjusted up. This can have major consequences for this year’s wage settlement. When asked how important the final estimate is, Fellesforbundet’s leader Jørn Eggum answers:
– I’m more uncertain than ever about what’s coming. I was surprised by 2.6 when we see the rising power prices and with a price increase in 2021 of 3.5 percent.
– But we have no better estimate than TBU. To say that TBU is wrong, then I think we will get a demanding settlement. It will increase, but how much it will increase beyond 2.6 percent, I’m not sure.
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Real wage growth
The starting point for Fellesforbundet in this year’s settlement is real wage growth: Wages must rise more than expected price development, which is currently 2.6 per cent. The higher the revised figure, the higher the wage requirements.
– But we will not weaken our competitiveness. In some countries with which we compete, the forecasts are for wage growth of 3.5 percent, says Eggum.
Stein Lier-Hansen, CEO of the counterparty Norsk Industri, says that whether they can live with the demand for real wage growth depends on how low or high the expected price growth will be.
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– Much more complicated
– If the committee maintains the preliminary estimate of 2.6 per cent, it will be easier to find a solution that meets the needs of both parties. But if inflation, for example, is raised to 3.2 per cent, it will be much more complicated.
Lier-Hansen points out that Fellesforbundet has not yet submitted its wage demands, they do so much later in the negotiations. But the final figures from TBU are important, they say something about what price growth in Norway will be in the year we are in.
– If Fellesforbundet insists that they must secure purchasing power, what it means in kroner and øre, depends on the final forecast for price growth, says Lier-Hansen.
Gets harder
– The higher that forecast is, the more difficult it will be to find a good solution in the wage settlement. We will go to the negotiations to ensure the companies’ competitiveness and thus workplace.
And the Academics, who have its members in the public sector, have been ready to the wage settlement in the front subjects must not be a ceiling for the members of the Academics.
Employees who are in direct competition with foreign countries work in the front subjects. Fellesforbundet and Norsk Industri have many employees / member companies in competitive industries.
– The whole point is that the companies that sit there, they are the ones that are in the most competition with abroad. Then wage formation must adapt to these companies’ ability to export goods, says Lier-Hansen.
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Completely irrelevant
– Everyone else must be within the framework or approximately of what the front subjects over time agree as a norm. It is completely irrelevant for us to sit and watch that everyone else gives a higher salary supplement than what they do in the front subject as a principle, he continues.
He accepts that there may be variations from year to year, but statistically we can document that the front subject has worked.
– Almost all other sectors have been at the same level as the front subject when you look at it over the 8, 16, 20 or 30 years, Lier-Hansen claims.
Eggum thinks that the employers in both the municipal and state sector have been very loyal to the front subject. He has great respect for the fact that unions in the state and municipalities must negotiate with their employers.
Does not lag behind
– But if we look at the last five years, government employees have had a wage increase of 11.9 per cent, municipal employees 11.7 per cent and industrial employees 11.1 per cent. To say that they have fallen behind depends on their own unreasonableness.
– The difference between them and our occupational groups is that we prioritize. If we are to lift in ban, it will be less for those at the top. If they are to prioritize nurses, they can do so, but they cannot prioritize everyone at the same time, warns the union leader.
The ongoing war in Ukraine also affects this year’s settlement. Prices can rise even more, while the growth prospects in the world look worse.
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More uncertain
– To what extent does the war in Ukraine change the rules of the game for this wage settlement?
– It makes it more uncertain. So far we see no reason to adjust to what was our plan before the war. We see that imports from Ukraine and Russia make up 8-9 percent of the total imports to Norway, so we are not a huge trading partner.
– But the war creates uncertainty in prices. When we have a war in Europe, it makes people and markets nervous. We get pressure on energy prices and other prices, not least transport and communication are directly affected, Eggum answers.
– Will the war create greater understanding among Fellesforbundet’s members to lower wage demands?
– I do not have an overview of that. Our demands were adopted before the war was a fact, but there has been no rumor that “Jørn, now you have to be careful.”
Must be able to pay the bills
– It is rather the opposite that now it is more important than ever that when prices go up here in Norway, that we can afford to pay our bills.
Lier-Hansen says that the war in Ukraine changes the rules of the game in two ways.
– First, I believe that the war is dampening the assumed economic growth globally. When that growth now stagnates, there will be less demand. It will affect the markets of our companies.
– The second is that some of our companies have long value chains. When we now do not get metals and input factors that enable car production in Europe to go full steam ahead, but shut down, it goes straight into all the companies that supply European car production.
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