VVD does not want to be in the cabinet, history shows where that can lead

• Guus Dietvorst

  Politics editor

It was an extremely surprising announcement from Dilan Yesilgöz: we are not going into a cabinet, tolerance is the highest achievable. The VVD leader said this before the formation had even started. It raises the question whether this modesty is a strategy and whether it might turn out differently.

Since Wednesday, a government on the right has been the most obvious option. PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB together have a large majority of 88 seats. And the leader of the largest party, Geert Wilders, prefers a right-wing majority coalition.

But Yesilgöz put a spoke in the wheel on Friday. “For the VVD, after thirteen years, and with this result, a different role suits us,” she said. “In our case, that means that we will not sit in a cabinet.” Wilders initially called it “very disappointing” and later he spoke of a “political tricks“. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas was “astonished” and NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt stated that the position of the VVD “complicates the formation process”.

CDA leader Henri Bontenbal, who (for the time being) plays a supporting role in the formation, interpreted it slightly differently. “These are the introductory shellings for the negotiations,” was his observation. And in negotiations it can pay off not to jump in immediately.

In 2021, for example, D66 obtained a lot of substantive content on the themes of climate and education that are important to the party, after party leader Sigrid Kaag’s enthusiasm for a continuation of the old coalition had been lacking in the formation for a long time. “This is where our paths part,” she told VVD leader Mark Rutte in the famous April 1 debate. And coalition partner ChristenUnie was called a “rusty car”.

The fact that the current formation could end very differently, for example with the VVD in a cabinet, also shows the further past. For example, after a significant loss of seats in 2002, the VVD initially did not want to join a cabinet with the two winners, LPF and CDA. Toleration would be possible, party leader Gerrit Zalm said at the time. But the blockade disappeared after a while and a three-party cabinet was formed.

It is difficult to “calculate” what the cautious strategy achieved for the VVD at the time, says Alexander van Kessel, one of the authors of the standard work Cabinet formations 1977-2012. It is certain that the Liberals won many points in 2002. But that was also because, according to Van Kessel, Zalm was “head and shoulders” above CDA member Jan-Peter Balkenende and LPF negotiator Mat Herben in terms of knowledge of government finances.

This is not what the VVD voter wants, thinks PVV leader Wilders:

Eight years later, the CDA (approximately halved in the 2010 elections) showed restraint in its formation. VVD and PVV should first reach an agreement before the CDA would join in, party leader Maxime Verhagen said. “Modility suits us.” But after a number of attempts to form diverse coalitions, a coalition of VVD and CDA was eventually formed, with the PVV as a tolerating partner.

Van Kessel points out that in both cases the reluctance of the losing party was mainly a signal for members and voters. “This type of strategy is mainly intended to let time do its work,” the researcher said. “So that the supporters can get used to the idea of ​​co-governance.”

Moreover, the reserved attitude of VVD leader Yesilgöz does not seem to have much to do with the supporters. On the contrary, because according to research of One today 84 percent of VVD voters want to govern with the PVV. There is strong criticism from VVD ranks, one of the critics spoke against it News hour of “a responsibility holiday”.

Dissatisfied VVD members also made themselves heard on X:

It is also possible that the VVD will change its position, thinks special professor of parliamentary history Bert van de Braak. “With formations it often turns out that things don’t work out, but then you still have to move forward.” After all, a cabinet must ultimately be formed.

For example, if PVV, NSC and BBB start talking and cannot reach an agreement, Van den Braak outlines, it may be necessary for the VVD to join. “And they can then say: well, the country must be governed after all.”

The coming weeks should show to what extent the party will stick to its decision to provide support as a tolerating partner. “I don’t see that position changing,” Yesilgöz said before the weekend. But it wouldn’t be the first time that that happened.