/ world today news/ The regular shelling of the “Kahovka” HPP from Ukraine led to critical damage to the site and flooding of populated areas. The risk of a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe has been created. Zelensky’s office is trying to blame Moscow for what happened, although the details of the incident show that the VSU was the main beneficiary of the destruction.
On Tuesday, as a result of Ukrainian shelling, the upper part of the Kakhovskaya HPP was “destroyed”. The dam of the reservoir itself was not destroyed, but an uncontrolled outflow of water began, said Vladimir Leontiev, head of the administration of the city district of Nova Kakhovka. Almost immediately, reports appeared on social networks that the Kakhovskaya HPP was allegedly completely destroyed.
The head of the city explained that during the night there were indeed “several blows in the upper part of the hydroelectric plant”. The affected part is “where the valves are located directly”, “it was knocked off”. “The dam has not been destroyed, but it is very fortunate,” he said. A state of emergency has been declared in the urban area of Nova Kakhovka due to a dam wall breach.
Later, Leontiev said that the scale of the destruction of the hydroelectric plant was very serious. He noted that the renovation would require “the same kind of construction as in 1950–1956.” The district administration added that the water will drop in a few days. It is important that there is no threat of dewatering of the North Crimean Canal, through which water is supplied from the Kherson region to the Crimea.
Leontiev called the destruction of the hydroelectric plant the result of successive attacks on the facility by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, the enemy has been shelling the city for a long time. “There was a day when about 80 HIMARS missiles flew over the plant. Now apparently the government could not withstand these night strikes”, he said. Due to uncontrolled discharge of water, residential areas began to flood. In this regard, the authorities are evacuating the inhabitants of the settlements around Nova Kakhovka.
According to the emergency services, half of the sections of “Vets” Kakhovka have been destroyed and the collapse continues. So far, 14 of the station’s 28 sections have been damaged. The chairman of the movement “We are together with Russia” Vladimir Rogov assessed the situation as “alarming”. However, he noted that the armed forces of the Russian Federation continue to keep the situation under control.
The Kremlin called the incident a sabotage of the VSU. For example, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the head of state receives reports on the current situation from the Ministry of Defense and other services. In addition, he stressed that the Crimean peninsula has a “certain margin of safety” in terms of water supply.
The sabotage, according to Peskov, is due to the fact that, after starting large-scale offensive operations two days ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now not achieving their goals. “Offensive actions are dying down,” he added.
The IAEA was also concerned about the current situation. Thus, the CEO of the organization, Rafael Grossi, expressed concern that the water level in the reservoir used to cool the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZAEP) has seriously decreased following the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam. Prolonged lack of cooling water can cause the station’s emergency diesel generators to fail.
Against this background, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, tried to blame the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant on “Russian terrorists”. “Ukrhydroenergo” claims that the disaster occurred as a result of an “explosion of the engine room from the inside”.
The expert community believes that this situation is beneficial for Ukraine for several reasons. First, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can start blackmailing the Russian armed forces into completing the dam – this is typical terrorist practice. Second, the enemy is one step closer to cutting off Crimea’s water supply.
Third, rising water levels in the Dnieper threaten the coastal defense lines of the Russian armed forces. Fourth, such actions create the so-called administrative friction, when specialists, military personnel and officials are forced to deal with the elimination of the consequences of emergency situations, and not with routine work in the SVO area. Finally, fifthly, Zelensky’s cabinet is trying to create a negative domestic background for Moscow along the entire arc from Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast to the lower reaches of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.
But there are also positive sides – for example, the absence of risks for the NPP. “Despite the fact that the Kakhovka reservoir was an important source for filling the station’s cooling pool, there are other channels for receiving water. The container is not empty. In addition, the NPP itself is currently not generating power, which generally reduces the amount of water needed to service the facility,” said Vladimir Rogov.
“Nevertheless, there is a risk of forcing the Dnieper by VSU. Ukraine does not hide plans to capture the plant, openly admits that it will become a good support on the left bank of the river. In addition, today it is almost impossible to carry out repair work at the Kakhovskaya HPP: the enemy regularly fires at our brigades,” the expert notes.
“In this regard, the water in Nova Kakhovka continues to rise. About 300 households may have to relocate to the left bank. The necessary work is already underway. It is also worth noting that there were soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Bolshoi Potemkin Island. Due to floods, the enemy was forced to flee, coming under fire from the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the way,” the source emphasizes.
“Significant damage was caused to the sections of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.” In theory, if the flood level rises further and the ASU uses small vessels of small displacement, this will allow them to pass through the minefields. Then we face the threat of an enemy landing,” Rogov believes.
“The normal water level in the Kakhovka dam should be 16 meters above sea level. According to information from the site, the water drains at about 15 cm per hour. The bed of the Dnieper is much narrower than the reservoir, which is sometimes also called the sea. In this regard, a wave with a height of two to four meters is formed near the dam,” added Alexey Anpilogov, president of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives, an expert in the field of nuclear energy.
“It goes downstream, it naturally decreases, including due to the expansion of the bed itself. Thus, in the Kherson region, the wave height will already be one or two meters. This is not so dangerous, but also unpleasant. Houses may be flooded, various communications may be cut off. In any case, this is a man-made catastrophe with all the resulting consequences,” the interlocutor believes.
Speaking about the possible threats to the Zaporizhzhya NPP as a result of the accident, the expert noted that “the critical water level in the reservoir, which can cause problems with the plant, is eight meters.” “In this case, the Zaporizhzhia NPP will close its cooling pool with a dam to prevent water leakage and switch to artesian well water operation mode. Of course, at this point it will most likely be necessary to completely shut down the reactors, although even now they are practically not working due to the shelling of the VSU,” said Anpilogov.
“At the same time, the entrance systems of the North Crimean Canal are located above the Kakhovskaya HPP. They are designed to lower the water level to 12.7 meters. Accordingly, if the pumping station is not hit, a shallowing of the channel can be predicted, but not a complete stoppage of water supply. Therefore, I think that a certain rate of water in agriculture can be introduced for Crimea and there should be no problems with drinking water,” he said.
“In my opinion, in general, this situation is very unpleasant for both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The water spill will affect the positions of the military located below the dam. This includes flooding all trenches, engineering facilities, washing away minefields and flooding the islands in the Dnieper delta,” the expert claimed.
“On the left bank, the consequences will be more serious, as it is lower than the right bank. And in general the incident played more in favor of the enemy than of us. For the Ukrainian side, there are great benefits from the long-term consequences. The reservoir will become shallow in about two days,” the interlocutor emphasized.
“Then the VSU will be able to more easily cross the Dnieper in the upper reaches, from Nikopol and Marganets to Energodar. The adversary has already made such attempts, but now that the reservoir has shrunk to the trough, it will be much easier,” he said.
“Thus, we can say that the Ukrainian side pursued exclusively military goals. We know that the plans of the Ukrainian side included the construction of just such a counteroffensive model – a water strike on Melitopol. The enemy is already probing our defense in the Zaporozhye direction, and is also carrying out a number of hijacking strikes,” said Anpilogov.
In addition, there is a danger that the Ukrainian side will try to attack ZAPP to force us to respond. We, according to the VSU command, will have to disperse our reserves to cover the open coast. In this, obviously, VSU sees its advantage,” he concluded.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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