Voting guide: PVV is the biggest, NSC falls far behind

In the latest Peilingwijzer, a weighted average of the seat counters at Ipsos I&O in Verian/EenVandaagthe PVV remains the largest party with 40 to 44 seats. That is 3 to 7 more than in the House of Representatives elections last November. The opposition party GroenLinks-PvdA leads by a large margin with 24 to 28 seats.

The other coalition parties are doing much worse than the PVV. BBB is still able to hold 6 to 8 seats, but it is clear that the VVD (19-23) and especially the NSC (3-5) are losing ground.

Pieter Omtzigt’s party won 20 seats in the elections and it now appears that only a fifth of his supporters remain.

Further research by Ipsos I&O shows that Pieter Omtzigt, who is retiring health reasons being at home endlessly adds to the image of a ‘non-stop party’.

According to Asher van der Schelde from the research group Ipsos I&O The strong point of the NSC in November was that the new party managed to attract voters from all over. “People from left to right felt that they liked Omtzigt’s story. Now that advantage is turning out to be a disadvantage: you will see NSC voters going out on both sides.”

On the one hand, the New Social Contract is losing to progressive left parties such as GroenLinks-PvdA. This mainly concerns people who are angry that Omtzigt has joined the PVV. On the other hand, NSC is also losing voters on the right, especially to the PVV. In this corner, the complaint is that NSC has made cabinet formation difficult and is now obstructing immigration and asylum policy.

For one in three voters, immigration and asylum are an important reason for voting for their preferred party. No topic is mentioned more often, as research by Ipsos I&O shows. According to the researcher Van der Schelde, this is an important explanation for the strong position of the PVV at the moment, the party that has the most voters with strong policies on this issue.

In addition, Dutch voters are still aware of Omtzigt’s qualities as a Member of the House of Representatives, recently. research by EenVandaag/Verian To see. In that role he is described as “ironically strong” and “in his power”. So almost half (48%) would prefer to see him return as a ‘normal’ Member of Parliament and not as party leader.

One party that is doing well in the Peilingwijzer is the CDA. During the elections, the Christian Democrats finished with a historic low of 5 seats, but that number has now doubled (8-12). Various studies show that this return can be attributed to party leader Henri Bontenbal, who is the top group director at Ipsos I&O.

The Animal Party (5 to 7 seats) and Volt (3-5) are other parties that have seen their support grow strongly. All other parties remain largely stable compared to the parliamentary elections.

How useful are these types of seat polls outside of election times? Tom Louwerse, creator of the Peilingwijzer, did it search in along with fellow political scientists Lisa Janssen and Tom van der Meer and came to the conclusion that their predictive value is limited. “Right now you are assuming that there is a completely imaginary situation: that there would be elections tomorrow and you would not vote for him then. Although there are no elections planned at the moment.”

“On the other hand,” Louwerse continues. “A new coalition cabinet has just been appointed and it is interesting to see how voters respond to this. In terms of content, but also expressed in voting intentions. We know that the political parties are also looking closely at this.The VVD and especially the PvdA in the Rutte-II cabinet fell in the polls from the start, making new elections much more interesting for these parties.