In East Germany in particular, AfD is on the rise. What explains its success? An interview with Volker Best (43), associate professor at Martin-Luther University in Halle.
EW Why is Alternative for Germany so popular in East Germany?
Volker Best: ‘For various reasons. The party appeals to voters’ “eastern identity”. In the 2019 elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, it did this with the old GDR election slogan Complete the turnaround – Complete the peaceful revolution. This time with The East does it – The East does it.
‘In addition, the traditional people’s parties have never had strong roots in the East German states since reunification. The party system influenced by West Germany does not find the same resonance in the East. For a long time, the people’s parties got away with this, thanks to party leaders Manfred Stolpe, SPD Prime Minister of Brandenburg from 1990 to 2002, Bernhard Vogel, CDU Prime Minister of Thuringia from 1992 to 2003, and Kurt Biedenkopf, CDU Prime Minister of Saxony from 1990 to 2002. Vogel and Biedenkopf were able to compensate for their lack of ties with East Germany. Their successors were increasingly less successful in this.’
EW AfD was founded in 2013. How was the party able to win hearts in such a short time?
Best: ‘Among other things, due to dissatisfaction with the grand coalitions of the CDU/CSU and the social democratic SPD that started in 2005 with the Merkel I cabinet. Many people were fed up with the internal disputes and felt that the government was not achieving enough. As a result, the parties lost their profile. Something similar happened with the current ‘traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP – three parties that initially described their coalition as progressive.
‘In East Germany, people react pragmatically: if something doesn’t work, we have to try something new. Let’s give the parties that haven’t governed yet – AfD and the left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – a chance.
‘And of course the migration crisis in 2015 and 2016 was a “gift” for the AfD, as later honorary chairman Alexander Gauland said.’
EW Relatively few immigrants live in East Germany. So where does the AfD come from?
Best: ‘The fact that the share of immigrants is small leads to an aversion to foreigners. Perhaps counterintuitively, but that is not only the case in East Germany. And here there are no stories of successful integration like in the Ruhr area, where guest workers from Turkey and Italy contributed to the economic success.
‘From the perspective of the AfD, East Germany still has a homogeneous German people that must be preserved. AfD members spread conspiracy theories that evil political elites want to replace the population with migrants. In the East, there are many sparsely populated areas, with places where the reception of sixty to seventy refugees is immediately noticeable. That is much more drastic there than for a city with millions of inhabitants. The resistance is greater.’
EW How organized is AfD in the East?
Best: ‘The AfD factions in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia work closely together. The politicians at the top support each other during election meetings. They hardly differ in content. In addition to their views on migration, there are more similarities: scepticism about support for Ukraine and the tendency to be Russia-friendly. This ties in with the positive image of Russia during the GDR.
‘At the end of last year, the university in Halle, where I work, held a discussion on how to deal with the AfD. Half of the regional AfD faction was in the audience, and first asked why the party was being portrayed in a bad light.’
EW CDU has erected a cordon sanitaire: the ‘fire wall’. Can AfD govern?
Best: ‘The firewall against AfD is self-evident when it comes to the Federal Government. It is said that this may be different in the eastern German states and municipalities. Two-thirds of the CDU members in the east question the firewall. Nevertheless, Michael Kretschmer, CDU Prime Minister of Saxony, will probably follow the national party line.
‘I am most concerned about Thuringia. There, the CDU, while in opposition, submitted several motions in which it knew that a majority could only be achieved with AfD. It is not inconceivable that the party leader could be elected as head of a minority government, although officially this can only be done with the consent of the CDU.
‘But AfD will not be able to take on government responsibility. AfD’s migration plans are simply unworkable. At the same time, a stricter deportation policy, as promised by many other parties, will not take the wind out of the sails of right-wing populist parties.’
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