TURKEY-CURRENT: Vladimir Putin is planning a visit to Turkey, according to the Turkish authorities. Photo: TASS / Reuters / NTB
Although the President of Turkey announces that Vladimir Putin will visit the country, it is by no means certain that the visit will take place.
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Det mener Inna Sangadzhieva i Helsingforskomitee.
– I don’t think Putin will go anywhere. He is hyper cautious. It is about his personal safety. He is terrified of moving inside Russia. All his travels are kept secret, she tells VG.
Talked with each other
On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone.
Following the meeting, Erdogan stated that Putin will visit Turkey. This is written by Reuters, which refers to the Turkish presidential office.
If he travels, it will be the first time Putin has visited a NATO country since Russia invaded Ukraine.
– When Erdogan goes out in public and announces it, I reckon he knows what he’s talking about. That they have talked together and agreed that Putin will visit, says Russia and Ukraine expert Jakub M. Godzimirski in NUPI.
THINKS PUTIN IS AFRAID: Inna Sangadzhieva in the Helsinki Committee. Photo: Ole Kristian Strøm / VG
Wanted internationally
Vladimir Putin is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
– Is there a possibility that Putin could be arrested if he goes to Turkey?
– Hypothetically, it is a possibility. Erdogan has his cards against the West too, he could possibly have negotiated something. But, as I said, I do not think that Putin will travel to Turkey, says Sangadzhieva.
– I do not believe. I expect that Erdogan has given clear security guarantees for Putin. Russia and Turkey have many common interests, Godzimirski answers the same question.
He believes that Putin’s trip to Turkey will be a way for the president to try to show that he is not isolated.
– On a personal level, they have good chemistry. They represent the same type of scheme: Authoritarian features, they are conservative and defend traditional values. Historically, they have a mixed relationship.
SENT LAVROV: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (centre) visited the BRICS meeting in South Africa instead of Putin. Photo: TASS / Reuters / NTB
Sangadzhieva believes that Putin is about to lose the war in Ukraine, and that he is now trying to gain a position.
– We have to see everything in the context of war, and the relations between Russia and the West. Russia loses the war. Now Putin is trying as best he can to stop the war, and to come out of it with negotiation opportunities. For him, it is not about him giving something, but he wants to demand something – so that he can show some kind of victory or gain internally in Russia.
She believes the two leaders have a lot in common when it comes to regime development, and highlights authoritarian leaders and the persecution of activists and journalists among several examples.
– Both want to keep power, both want to keep the status quo, while at the same time they are different. Erdoğan has realized that Putin is headed for defeat, that he is no longer someone to bet on. But he tries to make the best of his own situation, where right now he can win more than lose.
Tyrian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Jens Stoltenberg during the NATO summit in Vilnius Photo: Naina Helén Jåma / VG
According to Turkey, the meeting will help to continue the diplomatic work to get a new grain agreement in place, which will ensure the export of grain from Ukraine.
– Turkey has played a decisive role in the grain agreement between Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, which Putin has chosen to shelve recently, says Godzimirski.
The agreement is important for the food supply in several developing countries.
– How will Stoltenberg and NATO react to one of their allies receiving a visit from Putin?
EXPERT: Researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski in NUPU: Photo: Thomas Andreassen / VG
– Stoltenberg is a consensus person. He wants to maintain a good relationship with Erdoğan with a view to Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. And for NATO, it may be important to have someone who speaks directly to Putin. Also with a view to negotiating a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, it can be interpreted as a way of legitimizing Putin’s power, and looking through the fingers at what he is doing in Ukraine.
Published:
Published: 02.08.23 at 16:14
Updated: 02.08.23 at 4:30 p.m
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2023-08-02 14:14:46
#Doubts #Putins #trip #Turkey #terrified
