Vladimir Putin: – Turn around the Wagner leader

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have turned his back on the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Prigozhin is the person who is often referred to as “Putin’s chef”. The two must have had a close relationship.

That’s what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in a new report.

Failed

ISW believes Putin is once again putting his trust in the conventional Russian military instead.

– Putin’s decision to focus and rely on conventional Russian forces marginalizes the Wagner group and the Siloviki faction, which nevertheless continue to contribute to Russian war efforts in Ukraine, writes ISW.

Several people, including British intelligence, have repeatedly pointed out that the Wagner group has been central to the battles that have taken place in Soledar and Bakhmut in Ukraine.

ISW also writes that the group apparently made progress in the war, but that they were unable to fulfill their promise to conquer Bakhmut with their own forces.

They believe that Putin gave Prigozhin confidence after the Russian military suffered catastrophic setbacks over time, some time ago.

Furthermore, they elaborate that Putin chose to give Prigozhin a chance to show what mobilized prisoners could contribute to the war, at the same time that the Russian military was in favor of a brutal air campaign aimed at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. They believe both attempts failed. At the same time that Russia is said to have used up most of their remaining stocks of precision missiles.

– Prigozhin seemed to have decided to be on top, and that he could challenge Gerasimov and even Sergei Shoigu to become the foremost in the Russian military. This hope now appears to have been delusional, writes ISW.

A threat

Valeriy Gerasimov is Russia’s chief of defense and Sergei Shoigu is Russia’s defense minister.

On 11 January Gerasimov was given overall responsibility for the Joint Grouping of Forces, and on 17 January the Ministry of Defense announced comprehensive reforms to expand and reconstitute the Russian armed forces.

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Intelligence services and several Kremlin officials have also stated that Putin is preparing a new wave of mobilization reservists.

The plan should also include an attempt to rebuild the Russian Ministry of Defense’s authority and reputation. ISW’s assumptions that relations between Putin and Prigozhin are cracking were reinforced when Putin did not credit Prigozhin and Wagner for the capture of Soledar during a January 15 television interview.

ISW also points out that Putin may have felt threatened by the Wagner leader’s progress.