More and more people now speculate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is living increasingly dangerously at the top of the Russian power hierarchy.
Jørn Holm Hansen, Russia expert and senior researcher at NIBR-OsloMet, believes two things in particular indicate that there is a possibility that Putin will be replaced.
– I don’t think it’s unlikely that by next summer we will see major changes in the energy system, says Holm-Hansen.
– Especially if Russia is militarily weak as it might seem. It may be characterized by wishful thinking on the part of the West and Ukraine, but it’s obviously not going particularly well, she says.
– The second reason is that Putin seems to have health problems. In a regime like the Russian one, one becomes extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in the leader’s health.
Hard to predict
He believes it is very difficult to predict what would happen if Putin were replaced. However, several international experts point out that the successor could be worse than Putin himself.
The Russian authorities are known for silencing criticism with somewhat harsh measures and, after the country’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 this year, further reduced the amount of criticism allowed by the opposition of the country.
Pressure rising: – The limit has been reached
However, one faction of the country’s opposition in particular has spoken out against the Russian leader and criticized the progress of the war in Ukraine.
A number of ultra-nationalist far-right extremists, dubbed hawks, have criticized the losses on the ground in Ukraine and the slow-moving war in the country in recent months.
– More terrifying
Author and longtime Russia correspondent Owen Matthews tells Sky News that Vladimir Putin’s hegemony of power will not survive a military disaster on the ground in Ukraine.
According to Matthews, a similar disaster would occur if Russia were to hand back land in Ukraine it occupied in 2014, such as the territories of the supposed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, or the Crimean peninsula.
– A strange regime
He warns that an alternative to Putin is scarier than the current situation.
– What is even more dangerous than the current situation, even more dangerous than Putin, is a revolution-like situation that ends with Putin’s downfall, Owens tells Sky News.
Wed aggressive
It points to opposition nationalists who are significantly more aggressive than Putin himself.
On BBC Newsnight in October, former British intelligence chief Sir Alex Younger said Putin was in danger of being thrown into a coup, according to Yahoo News.
– Putin risks being overtaken by the same political circle that he himself founded, a right-wing chauvinist, nationalist and fascist, he told the BBC.
– They were his supporters, but now they criticize him for not going far enough and hard enough in Ukraine, he continued.
– Hard to say
OsloMet’s Jørn Holm-Hansen doesn’t rule out that the heir could become more extreme, but finds it impossible to confirm.
– There is a risk of this happening, but it is very difficult to say anything for sure what would happen, says Holm-Hansen.
He points out that the hawks now appear to have completely taken control of the balance of power within Putin’s inner circle, and that the moderate wing probably doesn’t have much power now.
At the same time, moderate and more liberal people in the power apparatus have not disappeared from the face of the earth.
– Most of the people in power remained there, although some did not speak aloud about the war. If Russia were to adopt a more conciliatory role of self-examination, there are good people who could assume power in that role as well, she says.
Out of tar
If Putin were to fall immediately, it is in principle Prime Minister Mikhail Misjustin who will take over as president. According to the Washington Post, however, Misjustin is widely viewed as a candidate who will quickly be replaced.
Both the Washington Post and many other media outlets that closely follow foreign policy point to one particular name.
Former FSB head Nikolai Patrushev is the candidate considered most central to taking Putin’s place, and one of the few who is consistently mentioned first in similar analyses.
He was also named as the most likely successor by Politico in late September.
Central names
The magazine describes him as slightly more politically extremist than Putin. Holm-Hansen believes he is much the same as Putin politically and represents continuity.
– He is a year older than Putin, but obviously much healthier. He is very trusted by Putin and both have experience in the security services, says Holm-Hansen.
IT CAN BE CHANGE: Russian expert and senior researcher Jørn Holm-Hansen believes that both Putin’s health and the situation in Ukraine could contribute to regime changes in Russia. Photo: OsloMet
sea View
Dmitry Medvedev is also cited by both Politico and The Washington Post as a potential heir apparent.
He served as the president of Russia from 2008 to 2012, with Putin as prime minister, before he and Putin switched jobs in 2012. He was the prime minister of Russia until 2020.
Hardnets
Medvedev has previously been regarded as a pro-reform politician, and several analysts during his presidency have pointed to the prospects for a more liberal period in Russian politics.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, however, Putin has become much tougher in his statements and rhetoric, both about the war and towards the West.
Holm-Hansen, on the other hand, doesn’t believe Medvedev is a very likely candidate.
– But who knows what happens when the solitaire is set down.
However, no matter what happens, he believes that the heir will most likely have a past from the current Russian power apparatus.
– I don’t think it will take long to get a political alternative in Russia, but I think the alternative comes from the power apparatus. There will be no clear opposition candidate like Alexei Navalny, she says.
