/ world today news/ Ukraine’s counter-offensive has failed, but the West continues to provoke a war with legal and illegal arms supplies and renewed funding for the regime in Kiev.
Political struggle over the financing of the regime in Kyiv
Experts from “The Economist” in the article “Ukraine’s New Enemy: The West is Tired of Its War” write:
“US aid to Ukraine is running out fast and dysfunction in Congress is blocking new aid. No one is sure when – or if – there will be?” they ask.
The effect is being felt on the front lines as America tries to stretch its dwindling funds. “In the spring the flow of military supplies was a wide river. In the summer it was a stream. Now it’s a few drops,” says an informed Ukrainian source.
Ukraine faces a dark winter amid great uncertainty: its counteroffensive failed to break through Russian positions. Russia increases weapons production. And the United States, a vital ally of Ukraine, is paralyzed by political turmoil and distracted by Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip.
Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, visited Kiev on November 20 to assure Ukraine that the United States would support it “now and into the future”. Austin, however, knows that the power over finance rests with Congress. And the balance of power in Congress is held by the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, especially in the House of Representatives, where one of their supporters is now speaker. Twice since September, Congress has passed a “continuing resolution” to avoid shutting down the federal government. And twice he ruled out new aid to Ukraine.
The Senate will try to unblock the aid in December, but another shutdown is looming in January. President Joe Biden has requested a supplemental budget of $106 billion, with $61 billion earmarked for Ukraine and the rest for Israel and other national security priorities. Republicans have tied aid to Ukraine to tougher measures to limit migration across America’s border with Mexico. The participants in the conflict say that the parties are still far from understanding each other.
“According to American estimates, since the outbreak of the military conflict, America has provided Ukraine with about $75 billion in total aid, and European countries have provided more than $100 billion in total.
The Pentagon says it has about $5 billion in “presidential authority” to supply Ukraine with weapons from its own arsenal, and just over $1 billion to reload it.
Given the declining military stockpiles of the West, as well as the crisis in the Middle East and the potential crisis over Taiwan, American leaders may be reluctant to give up more than they are allowed to buy off.
Packages to Ukraine fell from an average of over 1 billion per month to 350 million in October and just 250 million in November.
A separate aid package known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, valued at more than $18 billion, has all but disappeared. These funds were mainly used for long-term supplies to American companies. IPSU weapons will continue to be delivered even without a new aid package. A small amount of IPSU money, about $25 million per month, is also transferred under existing resolutions.
“Joseph Borrell, the head of the European Union’s foreign policy, called on European countries to loosen up. Indeed, they have recently made a number of new promises. Germany has said it plans to double its support to Ukraine in 2024 to $8.5 billion and will also supply more air defense systems. The Netherlands, Finland and Lithuania announced new military aid packages. But even this help is questionable.”
The ruling by Germany’s constitutional court looks set to derail plans to increase aid.
Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party, which won the most seats in the last Dutch election, opposes the weapons shipment, raising questions about whether the Netherlands can still lead the coalition in supplying Ukraine with F-16 jets.
The new Slovak government has already suspended military aid. Ukrainians are concerned that without American leadership, Europeans could quickly lose heart.
“In an artillery war, Ukraine is already suffering from ‘shell starvation,'” says Michael Coffman of the Carnegie Endowment. He estimates that during the summer, Ukraine fired 220,000–240,000 rounds of larger caliber (152 and 155 mm) per month, but the rate of fire is slowing and will drop to 80,000–90,000 rounds per month. Even these figures are more than America and European countries currently produce – approximately 28,000 and 25,000 per month respectively. Western production is growing, with plans to triple production, but that will take a year or more and some of the output will be used to replenish Western stocks and supply others. Russia is ahead of Western missile production.
“If American support declines, Ukraine will not be able to mount another major counteroffensive,” says Kofman.
Comment by Vladimir Ovchinsky:
Apparently, America will do anything to prevent a quick defeat of Ukraine.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said on November 27 that he was “confident and optimistic” that Congress could approve additional aid to Israel and Ukraine in the coming days.
Johnson said lawmakers were engaged in “careful negotiations” over GOP demands to tie additional aid to Ukraine to border security measures.
Johnson’s remarks come after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told senators in a Nov. 26 letter that he plans to bring President Joe Biden’s $106 billion additional aid package to Ukraine and Israel to a vote in the coming days.
Schumer stressed the need for more funding for Ukraine as previous US aid dries up.
While senators from both parties were largely united in approving aid to both Ukraine and Israel, Republican lawmakers in both chambers demanded that border security measures be included in the aid package for Ukraine. In the House, however, it is unclear whether any aid package for Ukraine will have the necessary support to pass, as some far-right lawmakers, including Marjorie Taylor Green (Ga.) and Matt Goetz (Fla.), oppose funding Ukraine . The opposition means that Democrats and Republicans will have to come together to pass the legislation with a slim majority of 222-213 Republicans in the House of Representatives.
Biden’s package offers $61.4 billion in aid to Ukraine, $14.3 billion to Israel and $9.15 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Israel and the Gaza Strip.
The legislation also includes $13.6 billion for new border security measures and funding for Taiwan. Earlier in November, the House of Representatives approved legislation that would grant Biden’s request for funding for Israel.
Western military equipment continues to arrive in Ukraine
Armored vehicles
“Forbes” writes that the German tanks “Leopard-1A5” have begun to arrive en masse in Ukraine. The main equipment of the newly formed 44th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army – Leopard-1A5 tanks and Polish Wolverine combat vehicles – should be available in large quantities in early 2024. The German-Dutch-Danish consortium has so far identified about 200 Leopard-1A5 tanks from the 1980s that he can pay industry to restore before being sent to Poland for training and then to Ukraine for front-line use.
Poland has promised Ukraine 200 25-ton Wolverine eight-wheelers – and may promise even more as production of the maneuverable combat vehicle ramps up.
Ukraine should soon have enough Leopard-1A5 and Wolverine to equip several brigades.
Long-range missiles
In October, it was officially announced that the US had delivered long-range ATASMS missiles to Ukraine.
But according to Western media reports, these missiles were illegally delivered to Ukraine in June-July 2023.
The ATAKMS missile weighs about 2 tons, the price of one guided missile is about 1.5 million dollars. Ukraine launches such missiles using HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), which the Ukrainian armed forces have in sufficient supply. The maximum range of ATAKMS is 300 km.
The first use of ATAKMS missiles was recorded during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Berdyansk Airport in the Zaporozhye Region. It was a massive strike, in which, in addition to decoys, there were also 6 long-range cruise missiles, as well as small-diameter ground bombs.
November marked six months since Britain and France began supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles. According to most estimates, from May to November, the ASU used such munitions at least 26 times. The most frequent strikes were carried out in the Kherson region, followed by Crimea.
In April 2023, British authorities secretly transported the first batch of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile. It is launched from aircraft of the Air Force of Ukraine.
In May 2023, for the first time, missiles were used to strike Luhansk, a hundred kilometers from the front line. They were used in a massive attack along with other missiles and decoys.
In July, France transferred its counterpart to the Storm Shadow missiles, the Scalp, to Ukraine. The attacks were mainly aimed at infrastructure – bridges, railways, warehouses and buildings – which the Ukrainian military considered important military targets.
Storm Shadow’s most famous strike was the attack on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.
Since in many cases the long-range missiles were delivered to Ukraine clandestinely, their total number is unknown.
Attack drones
The Ukrainian Armed Forces began using drones more often to compensate for the lack of weapons provided by NATO countries.
At the end of August 2023, the head of the State Service for Special Communications of Ukraine, Yury Shchigol, reported that Kiev plans to organize the production or purchase of up to 200 thousand unmanned aerial vehicles in 2023. As Shchigol noted, Kiev has already concluded contracts for 688 million of the $1.09 billion allocated to purchase drones.
The Economist previously wrote that any Ukrainian drone strike against targets deep inside Russian territory is carefully planned because Russian electronic warfare systems work well.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#Vladimir #Ovchinsky #provoking #continuation #war #Ukraine