February 28, 2020
11:59
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“I am neither pessimistic nor catastrophic,” says virologist Peter Piot, “but I think we can best hope to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We can’t stop it.”
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“History has taught us that viruses can spread very quickly,” Peter Piot, one of the world’s most famous virologists, told us about the coronavirus last month. This is precisely what is happening. For Peter Piot and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine he directs, there is no shortage of work. After our short telephone conversation, he was expected in London by a delegation from Hong Kong. And in a few days, he will go to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to put everything in place while there are the first contaminations in Central Africa.
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Do we already know more about the coronavirus?
Yes, we have progressed since our last conversation. We knew that the virus was less deadly than SARS, but much more contagious. We now know that its contagiousness is comparable to that of the flu.
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What are the consequences for the fight against the virus?
I expected EU countries to have a more uniform policy.
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The consequences are significant. The flu is very difficult to stop, but we have a vaccine, unlike COVID-19. I estimate that the mortality rate for those infected should be around 1% or less. The outcome depends on the patient’s age and other illnesses they may be suffering from. People over 70 – like me – or chronically ill people with COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) or diabetes are more vulnerable.
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The epidemic is spreading rapidly. Is the fight against the coronavirus making progress?
For the past few weeks, we have had several diagnostic tests. This is important progress. It should not be forgotten that the virus was not isolated until January 9. The reaction was therefore very rapid. The other good news is that the number of new cases in China is declining. So we know that China has peaked. The big question is what will happen when schools and businesses reopen. Perhaps we will experience a new wave of contamination. We will have to wait to know its extent.
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But in the meantime, the virus has arrived in Europe…
For the past few weeks, we have had several diagnostic tests. This is important progress. It should not be forgotten that the virus was not isolated until January 9. The reaction was therefore very rapid.
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This is bad news. No one saw him coming to Italy. The country had however canceled all flights to China. But it was not enough. Several cities and towns have been quarantined, but we will also have to wait to find out the impact of these measures.
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What do you think is the strategy to implement to fight against this virus?
For Belgium, the strategy is to prevent it from entering the territory.
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And if in spite of everything it arrives at our house, should we do like Italy?
In this case, it will be necessary to apply the strategy of “social distancing”: washing your hands, disinfecting, closing schools, avoiding major events such as sports competitions, etc. I expected EU countries to have a more uniform policy. Health ministers from EU member states are expected to agree on a strategy.
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And after that?
Then it gets complicated. It is not possible to stop the whole world. You can still drive from Pisa to Ghent. Once again: Italy had cut all its flights, but that didn’t stop the virus.
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WHO members are very active, including outside Asia. They hold an informal briefing every week. Remember, they still have a lot of work in China and continue to fight other viruses like Ebola.
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That’s why I think we need to prepare for many patients, which will require extensive medical care. Remember that under these circumstances, healthcare workers may also be at risk of infection, and that we are in the middle of the flu season. It is therefore important to get vaccinated against the flu, if only to avoid overloading the medical system.
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So we can’t stop it?
I think not. You can slow it down, but you can’t stop it. Please understand: for the moment, Belgium is not affected. It’s a good thing, because it saves time. Slowing the virus down is useful because we can prepare better. We can also hope that, like the flu, the virus will go away with the end of winter. Even if we have an important contraindicator in Singapore, where it is always 30 degrees and where the virus has also spread.
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In these circumstances, is it not dangerous to continue to land 20 flights per hour in Tenerife?
It’s a risk, but I don’t know the details of the quarantine there. It is necessary to define a red zone and a green zone, and to control the exchanges between these zones. All persons in the red zone must be checked and followed. It’s a very specialized job and I don’t know how they are organized in Tenerife.
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Computer scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Diseases you lead are trying to predict the spread of the disease using mathematical models. Is it effective?
They predicted that China would experience a serious drop in new cases in late February. It’s confirmed. For the rest, it remains very difficult. Among other things, we studied whether controlling the temperature of air passengers made sense. The answer is that it does not do much, as half of those infected do not have a fever at the start of the infection.
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You have been very critical of the World Health Organization (WHO), which has been slow to respond. Do you think she took matters into her own hands?
Yes I think so. WHO members are very active, including outside Asia. They hold an informal briefing every week. Remember, they still have a lot of work in China and continue to fight other viruses like Ebola.
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What about coordination at European level?
I would say: can do better.
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