Pablo Rod Martini
The first survey between Sandra Torres and Bernardo Arévalo in a few days will reflect, quite possibly, an already wide difference in favor of the latter. A sequence of political leaders from the left and center, and perhaps even from the moderate right giving him support, will accentuate that trend. It would not be strange, therefore, if a second survey days before the second round already shows an irreversible gap of 20% or 25%. An easy and overwhelming victory for Arévalo against Torres, recalling the victory of Jorge Serrano against Jorge Carpio or Jimmy Morales against Sandra Torres herself, is what would be glimpsed in the coming weeks. And with the watchful eye of the US embassy to ensure that the popular decision is respected.
I wish the process was that simple, linear and predictable. I hope that after pages and pages of narration of the Guatemalan political novel in which the bad guys win over and over again, the final chapter was one in which the correlation of forces turned completely around, and the hero, beaten in all the previous chapters by the anti-hero, ends victorious when the last pages close. Hopefully, therefore, that after the Medusa with snakes for hair has gradually increased her control of the country since the end of the Morales government and throughout the entire period of Alejandro Giammattei, she would be defeated in that way by the surrounded grandfather of boys in a peaceful revolution, with a symbol of the simplest, but highly symbolic as it is a seed.
I do not rule out this scenario, but its probability is very low. The political class that currently controls the country—Giammattei and that broad alliance of opportunist parties—have not “worked” as hard to control each and every one of the institutions of the country’s democratic racket—Executive, Congress, Constitutional Court, Supreme Court of Justice, Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Comptroller of Accounts, Human Rights Attorney (and incidentally even the USAC)—as if to be good losers and say now it’s your turn.
The fight will be harsh. The best thing in these cases is to try to think as they would think. First, they will exhaust all possible resources to prove that there was some type of fraud in favor of Bernardo Arévalo. How, they will say, someone who appeared in the follow-up platoon of the three leaders, without much of a chance, separated from that platoon and finished second? Time after time, photos of falsified ballots are already popping up on Twitter to underscore this claim. The CC is already on that path. The complete absence of public protests when the TSE annulled the registration of the Movement of Indigenous Peoples, or when later, very quickly, Carlos Pineda was “taken down from the rostrum”, simply encourages these organizations to do what they want . The absolute passivity of the Guatemalan is indescribable; a flock of sheep would show more disobedience. Giammattei and his allies have taken the temperature of the popular climate in the country, and they know that of a few dozen people (or hundreds at most), the protests do not pass (the protests against fraud at USAC were the exception). ).
Second, if they do not manage to get the TSE to place Manuel Conde second in a “recount”, they will dig everything necessary to try to prove that there is something illegal in the constitution of Semilla, in its assemblies, or in Arévalo’s past. or his vice presidential candidate. They will leave no stone unturned. And with the control they have of the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court, any appeal, however absurd it may seem, may be accepted by one of both and create chaos where only Giammattei and his serpents can win. The Baldizón pack (those are the services they offer their clients) has already launched the first barks in that direction. And let’s not say the suspension ordered by the CC.
Third, if both processes do not progress because the gap between Arévalo and Conde was significant or because no evidence against Semilla is found or cannot be falsified, propaganda will continue to spread fear: Arévalo will want to be presented as the Nicolás Maduro or the Daniel Ortega of Guatemala. Expropriations, taxes, unemployment, abortions, LGBT rights, defense of gang members, the return of the CICIG, what will not be said against Arévalo, his people and his proposal. Sandra Torres’ first press conference evidenced it. If one reads Semilla’s government program, one notices that they avoided touching on sensitive issues; during these weeks, however, they will try to force them to pronounce on core issues.
Fourth, if the above still does not work for them and the polls confirm that 10%, 20% or more separates both candidates, there will be no shortage of the darkest forces that will be inclined to eliminate the Arévalo factor and leave an unknown Karin Herrera as the main figure. . At this point, therefore, any exit to the streets of Arévalo would have to take place under maximum security conditions, since every day that he goes out to the streets he will be at risk. Luis Donaldo Colosio from Mexico or Carlos Galán from Colombia seemed invulnerable, and it was not like that, and the elections continued as if nothing had happened, now without his charisma.
Fifth, there will also be attacks on the ability to govern of Arévalo and its people, as well as the proposals they have presented in their government plan. Sandra Torres and all those politicians from that disastrous alliance for the country who come to support her directly (perhaps very few) or implicitly (almost all of them) will insist on pointing out that Arévalo and his people do not have the necessary experience to govern. or that one cannot pretend to go from being an adviser to international organizations to leading the destinies of a country. And they will attack the proposals of the government plan (which is certainly weak) and it looks more like consulting work with many quantitative indicators, a good amount of wishful thinkingand little meat in terms of politics.
Sixth, the only thing that will not be an option for them will be fraud in the second round because it would have to be shamelessly condemned not only nationally, but also internationally (Sandra Torres is the contender that any politician wants, because she loses in the chess of the politics whether he plays with the white or black pieces). It would not be to change 1% or 2% of the votes, but 10% or 20%, which would be undeniable. And it also happens that the TSE magistrates who arrived as part of the iron control that Giammattei and the snakes of Congress have, will ultimately want to continue their professional careers, wash their faces with a transparent election, and appear decency.
Hopefully of the six options everything would stay in the fifth, which would be the most decent on the part of Sandra Torres and her evil allies, or that it would include something from the third, which would already be hitting low. However, none of the others can be ruled out. perhaps with the exception of the sixth, which could only occur if the gap between the two were very smallña, but with the terrifying antipathy that Torres generates, that would practically be a miracle. The first option, in fact, already started with the decision of the CC.
In relation to something that I mentioned in the first paragraph: the US embassy. Times are not those of ten or twenty years ago, when the power that was exercised to prevent the authoritarian and corrupt politicians of Central America did not do their thing . The royal power of the embassy has drastically diminished in the region, or have Giammattei and his people not done as they please? And the same with the rulers of Nicaragua, El Salvador or Honduras. The reason is very simple: the rulers of the four countries control the flow of migrants to the north; if the US becomes uncomfortable, the tap opens and the gringos at the border can settle. That is why the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris has been left so powerless to deal with the dictatorial practices and rampant corruption in these four countries.
And what will happen if Giammattei and his snakes fail to stop Arévalo? The government will be arduous, especially because of the legislative majority that the sum of these parties achieved and because of the massive control they will have of mayors and municipal corporations throughout the country. Accustomed to sucking the State of its resources, either through the sale of laws or bonuses in Congress, the capture of public investment, and many more intricacies, they will not stop their modus vivendi. That will be the subject of another article.
I have not lived in Guatemala for 17 years, and I currently live more than 10,000 kilometers from the country. Guatemala is nothing but a memory, a memory that comes to life occasionally, especially in times as dramatic as those of the current election. Some details of my article may be questionable for both reasons (time and distance), but once known, the Medusa is never forgotten, and the Guatemalan Medusa has only spawned many more snakes on its scalp.
Pablo Rod Martini
He has a PhD and an MA from Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London. He was Chief Economist at CABEI, and previously Coordinator of the ASIES Economic Team. He wrote for many years for El Periódico, and more occasionally for Prensa Libre. For 7 years he has lived in Warsaw, Poland. In his youth he was the leader of the Juventud de la Democracia Cristiana Guatemalan and previously Bi-National Chess Champion of Guatemala. Currently he is considered one of the top maritime influencers worldwide.
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