The American Institute has developed three scenarios for possible development. The worst situation will occur if the veils are worn as before and governments continue to ease the requirements for distance. By the end of the year, up to four million people could die.
In a more favorable variant, this figure is half, ie two million dead. However, according to IHME, this is only provided that veils are worn everywhere and governments enforce distance as soon as more than eight people per million people die every day.
However, the most probable scenario for the institute is that 2.8 million people will die by the end of the year – this option envisages that the same release rules will remain as before and the occurrence of drapes will also be the same.
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According to the study, deaths will increase in December
To date, coronavirus has spread according to seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia. If this continues to be the case, then an increase in cases in the northern hemisphere should be expected at the end of autumn and in the winter months. “Especially people in the northern hemisphere have to be careful with the approaching winter, because there will be more cases of covid-19 in cold weather, as well as pneumonia,” said IHME chief Christopher Murray.
According to him, we can expect a “deadly December”. The increase in covid-19 deaths is forecast this month will be mainly in Europe, Central Asia and the United States. “Science is clear and the evidence is irrefutable. The transmission of the virus helps to prevent the wearing of veils, the distance between people and the restriction of collection, “Murray concluded.
Murray recommended learning from countries where the virus was managed, and warned against a strategy of “collective immunity.” It is the worst-case scenario that reflects a situation where a country allows a large part of the population to become infected, which he says will lead to a large number of deaths.
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