Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) ended with 1.02% appreciation to the level of Rp 6,481.77 in the last trading last week, Friday (8/20/21). Not only accelerated, it turns out that all sectors have strengthened.
However, when the JCI strengthened more than 1%, the sectoral index consumer non-cyclical precisely flat with a slight appreciation of 0.01%.
The constituent stocks of this sector, especially those with large market capitalization, such as PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) and PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) experienced a correction of 1.45% and 0.44%, respectively.
The weakening of the two stocks was enough to be a burden on the index considering that the weight of the two stocks against the sectoral index was quite large.
The following is a list of the index’s constituent stocks consumer cyclical large market cap that is experiencing a correction:
|
Share |
1D (%) |
1W (%) |
|
UNVR |
-1.45 |
+23.32 |
|
HMSP |
-0.44 |
+9.80 |
|
ICBP |
+0.56 |
+6.91 |
|
GGRM |
-0.29 |
+8.11 |
|
MYOR |
0.00 |
+2.54 |
|
INDF |
0.00 |
+7.20 |
|
AMRT |
-0.39 |
-3.73 |
The performance of the non-cyclical consumer sector which tends to lagging This follows the government’s move to pursue tax payments, especially from VAT (value added tax). In Law on Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), the VAT rate will be increased from 10% to 11% next year.
An increase in the VAT rate will cause prices to increase. In the midst of the economic recovery momentum that continues in 2022, fiscal policy is expected to remain expansive with the stimulus.
Fiscal tightening that is too fast will tend to impact public consumption as the backbone of the economy.
It is possible that the economy will not grow as expected because people’s purchasing power has not yet recovered optimally but is immediately faced with rising prices of goods.
Weakening public purchasing power will tend to be a stumbling block for issuers in the consumer sector, especially for elastic and non-essential products.
However, in fact, corrections in the consumer sector tend to occur only at the end of last week’s trading, where market participants use the negative momentum of the VAT increase to take profit-taking.
If it is pulled further, within a week this sector still recorded a positive return. Almost all of the constituent stocks of the consumer index which are classified as big caps and with the largest constituent weights experience an uptrend.
UNVR shares with the largest weight even experienced an appreciation of more than 20% in a week after previously being corrected to below the level of Rp. 4,000/unit.
So how will these stocks perform in the future?
Can the bad news about the increase in VAT stop the ongoing increase in consumer stocks? on fire?
In general, historically, in October, the JCI has a big chance of rising, considering that the tenth month is the beginning of the fourth quarter where preparations are usually made. window dressing already starting to feel in this month. Window dressing is usually termed a strategy to beautify performance or financial statements or business portfolios, both issuers and investment managers.
The peak usually occurs in December when the phenomenon of window dressing usually makes the index green. Consumer sector stocks also have the opportunity to be lifted in December this year.
Potential for consumer stocks to also receive sentiment window dressing actually quite large considering that many stocks in this sector are stocks big cap.
This means that many investment managers hold these consumer stocks so that they have an interest in raising the stock price at least until the end of the year so that their portfolio looks good.
CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM
(trp/trp)
– .
