/ world today news/ Will there be a regular government behind which a majority of 121 deputies will stand in the 46th National Assembly – this is the question on the agenda for Bulgaria in August. We asked political scientists and sociologists three questions:
1. The profile of proposals for Prime Minister Plamen Nikolov – does it bring pluses or minuses?
2. Will there be a majority behind the composition of the Council of Ministers proposed by “There is such a people”?
3. Is there a chance for the BSP to form a government if it gets the third mandate?
See sociologist Vasil Tonchev’s answer:
1. Our expectation is that the next Prime Minister will start working at high speed immediately – something that clearly will not happen. But it is not unpromising if he is given time to get into things and manage to build a decent Council of Ministers. In this situation, it is most likely that political battles will move to parliament, where they belong. We are simply already used to thinking by analogy with the “Borisov” situation, which obsessed all the authorities, and now we are going the opposite way of division.
And the Prime Minister will concentrate on pragmatic tasks – on the economy and the current agenda of the country. I look at it in the whole configuration and I think that such an approach and such a profile of such a prime minister can find a successful place. Whether it will is a question we can only guess.
2. I think this move with the proposed prime minister brings us closer to having a government. The profile of the new prime minister coincides with the profile of “There is such a people”. The arguments against them are weakened. I am sure that this option will not please their partners, especially “Democratic Bulgaria”, who assumed that some long-term vision will be developed from now on – as they see it, but they will have to come to terms .
Everything is a matter of majority in the parliament, and it is constituted on the basis of “anti-GERB” at the moment, and not on the basis of a long-term vision. In my opinion, the “anti-GERD” platform will work for a while with a not very long horizon, and things will balance out from that point of view. Then a new rift will come, when some long-term priorities will be thought of.
When I say “rift”, I mean around the protest parties and especially between “Democratic Bulgaria” and “There is such a people”. It is impossible to say exactly, but probably a year is the most likely term for the work of this government. The main dividing line is the reform of the judicial system and the replacement of Geshev. That is, as long as there are people who think that they are under its umbrella and are untouchable by the law, there can be no change as they want it. That is, when this reform is checked, things will become different.
If it does not take place, they will remain as they were until now.
3. I do not think that it is absolutely impossible to realize a BSP mandate. But it is unlikely that the protesting parties will move towards a BSP mandate. And otherwise, if there is a third mandate, it should be given to “Democratic Bulgaria” and then we will again face the interaction “Democratic Bulgaria” – “There is such a people”. The BSP has no options for solutions, they will support such a majority now and then, because otherwise they are completely out of the game. The price is some social measures, for which we see that “There is such a people” willingly agrees.
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