Without surprise, The report from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, published on February 15, first warns policymakers that, in most scenarios, “a significant increase in COVID-19 cases and of deaths ”. The only exception (the gray line in the table below) is the optimistic scenario: one in which the variants do not become dominant and the vaccination campaign continues unabated for the next eight months.
Death rate per 100,000 inhabitants, in the absence of a dominant variant (gray line),
or with a dominant variant without effective vaccination (orange), with delayed (blue) or optimal (green) vaccination.
These rising death curves may seem counterintuitive, considering that the number of cases is currently on the decline in many European countries. But since January 21, the reported cases of British (B.1.1.7) and South African (B.1.351) variants have been on the rise. The British are already reaching high proportions in Portugal (45% of cases of coronavirus detected), the Netherlands (more than 30%), Denmark (27%), Italy (18%) and France (13%) . With a peak in Ireland (75%). As these figures “differ in their sampling strategies, time period and screening methods”, they cannot be compared with each other, and they may also be a few days behind the reality.
These variants being more contagious, only a policy of rapid screening and follow-up of contacts can limit their spread, while waiting for the vaccination to gain ground. And this is what the projections have tried to illustrate: three scenarios in which the variants have completely taken the place of the previous version of the virus (as in South Africa) and where vaccination is progressing at full speed, or else with delays.
The weather will come to lend a hand, continues the report, with a “potentially reduced transmission during the summer months” while conversely, health measures (confinement, distancing, mask, etc.) too relaxed will contribute to make the figures go up again.
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