The decline in the number of new infections with the coronavirus has ‘at least reached the bottom’. That is what Steven Van Gucht, virologist at health institute Sciensano, says on Friday. ‘Tomorrow we will already report a slight increase.’
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The confirmed corona figures that Sciensano published on Friday for the week of June 22 to 28, show that on average there were almost 352 confirmed cases of Covid-19 per day in Belgium. Compared to the previous week, it is still 8 percent less, but the decrease is therefore limited compared to previous weeks.
In Flemish Brabant, there has even been an increase in confirmed infections of 6 percent in the same period. In East and West Flanders the decrease is limited to just 1 percent and in the Brussels region the number of new cases has remained the same.
‘I think we have at least reached the bottom,’ explains Van Gucht. ‘Then of course the question is whether we will rise and how far, but it looks like that. Tomorrow we will already report a slight increase.’ According to the virologist, the fact that the decrease in corona infections is coming to an end is ‘not unexpected’. “It was only a matter of time before the numbers bottomed out.”
Three aspects play an important role in this. Firstly, there is the emergence of the more contagious deltavariant of the coronavirus, which was first identified in India. According to Van Gucht, 30 to 40 percent of the infections are gradually occurring with this mutation. Second, the relaxations and consequent increased contact between people has an impact. ‘We are well three weeks after the start of the summer plan and we can only see that in the figures.’
As a third aspect, the virologist points to the peak of the corona tests performed. ‘That is of course also very important. We are left with a lot more testing from travelling. We see an enormous increase in the teens and twenties in particular’, he emphasizes. “Then you’ll also find more cases that we might not have seen before.”
It is especially important to keep a close eye on the epidemiological situation and to see how the corona figures continue to evolve after the peak in the number of tests. “It is important here that the infections do not lead to hospital admissions and deaths,” says Van Gucht. “The hospital admissions are still going well. They sit low and keep going down.’ The well-advanced vaccination campaign plays an important role in this.
The virologist still insists on the importance of caution and says that we must continue to realize that the corona virus has not yet disappeared. “If we let go of all caution and return to a situation as normal, then a very large fourth wave is still a possibility,” it sounds. ‘The greatest risk then lies with the people who do not have themselves vaccinated. Those are the people who would then be admitted to hospital.’ However, Van Gucht does not assume that scenario. “I don’t think everyone will let go of caution now.”
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