The Delta strain has become the majority in the US, where it is responsible for 50-80% of new infections. The White House chief epidemiologist is worried that Americans have been 50% immunized, which means – at the same time – that half of the US population is at risk.
Moreover, as the effectiveness of Delta strain vaccines decreases, the percentage of those vaccinated who can still become infected has increased from 5% to 12%. This means that they will develop a mild form of the disease, but on the other hand, they may in turn become vectors of transmission.
As far as the effectiveness of anti-COVID serums goes
Professor Alexandru Rafila (Romania’s representative at the WHO), Dr. Gabriel Diaconu and Professor of Public Health Răzvan Cherecheş were asked by “Adevărul” reporters if those vaccinated against COVID can be vectors of transmission and what percentage of group immunity would rise in the case of the Delta variant.
“The probability of getting sick and, implicitly, of transmission is much lower in those who are vaccinated. There is no perfect vaccine for any communicable disease. But those who are vaccinated have an 8-10 times lower risk of getting the disease than those who are not vaccinated. For the Delta strain it is a bit lower, but the forms that require hospitalization and death are prevented. Under these conditions, the hospitals will not be overcrowded “, explained Dr. Alexandru Rafila, Romania’s representative at the WHO.
The chances of vaccinated people transmitting the virus are very low
Prof. Răzvan Cherecheş explained the details to be taken into account when it comes to vaccination immunization.
“When a person is vaccinated, that person’s immune system ‘learns’ to make antibodies against the spike protein, which is the capsule around the virus. When the person – after taking both doses – comes in contact with the virus, it enters the body. At that moment, officially, the person is exposed to the infection: the virus enters the body and begins to multiply. The difference is that the person’s immune system recognizes the spike protein and begins to instantly produce antibodies, which begin to attack the viruses that are produced. We know from studies that somewhere between 70% and 90% of those who have been vaccinated do not get infected or transmit the infection – measurably speaking. That is, even if they have been exposed to the infection, their immune system is strong enough to instantly annihilate the multiplying viruses. Well, for the rest, the immune system is likely to be a little slower, and then the rate at which viruses multiply is faster than the rate at which they are destroyed. They make light or medium shapes. They can transmit the infection, but the probability of transmission is much, much lower than for those who are not vaccinated “, said Prof. Răzvan Cherecheş.
At what threshold of group immunization does the spread of the Delta strain stop
If the infectivity of the Delta strain is higher, then what about the immunization threshold in the group? The specialist says that the percentage differs depending on several factors.
“The group immunization threshold is variable, because there are many variables that influence that percentage. For example: the percentage of group immunity in a rural community is much lower, because those people do not travel by public transport, they do not interact on the scale of the block. In rural areas, if the percentage of those immunized is 50%, it is enough. In the extremely dense urban environment – it depends, again, how dense – as it is in the Capital, it should be somewhere around 70%, because people are much closer to each other and come into contact with many more people. The percentage of group immunity in the Delta variant increases somewhere to 80%. This is rather a national average, a clear percentage no one will be able to tell you “said Răzvan Cherecheş.
The professor states that, from an epidemiological point of view, the aim is to limit community transmission, not individual infection:
“The issue with group immunity is as follows: if I don’t want or can’t get vaccinated – I have an autoimmune disease, there are such cases – to be protected would be to have an overwhelming majority of vaccinated people around me, so the probability of transmitting the virus to me is much lower. If you have an infected person and 90% of those around him are vaccinated, the virus is not transmitted further and does not take the time to become epidemic, only a few isolated cases remain. It is necessary to decrease the probability of transmission “, concludes Cherecheş.
When we get rid of the pandemic
Dr. Gabriel Diaconu, a psychiatrist, explained how people perceive the notion of “immunization”.
“When it comes to the vaccine, many people live with the feeling that they have been immunized in the romantic sense of the word: they don’t touch me anymore, I’m perfectly safe. And it’s not true! In the public message, the nuance is this: yes, you get vaccinated, because it gives you a sufficient degree of protection so that you do not die of the disease on the variants in circulation. As for the spread of the virus, we already have empirical evidence that several more successful vaccination campaigns have curbed infections, that anti-COVID vaccination prevents the spread of circulating strains for which those vaccines have been approved. Vaccination lowers the infection rate, period. We know that even in the case of individual infections, which occur in those under 5%, they will be much better carried away by individuals “, said Dr. Gabriel Diaconu.
Asked what chances humanity has to get rid of the pandemic, as the virus evolves through mutations faster than the rate of vaccination and the ability to develop new sera against new variants, Dr. Gabriel Diaconu replied:
“It is a failure on the day when states decide to force vaccination, to make it mandatory, because it shows that at the level of experts states that vaccination has bought us time, but any time less than 70% vaccinated is useless. Because, at the same time, the virus undergoes new mutations, the mutations jump like a frog on water from vulnerability to vulnerability. The only prediction about coronavirus that we hope is that as viruses acclimatize to the human species, their infectivity increases, but their case fatality decreases. Over time, the mutations of the virus make it easier for him to live with the host, to have the ability to replicate, but without killing his host.
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