There are over 40,000 empty apartments in Berlin. And the worst thing is that they will probably not be rented out in the future either. Berlin urgently needs living space because the city is continuing to grow, with almost 3.9 million people living in the federal capital. It is hard to understand why no one can move into the empty apartments. But there are reasons for this.
One thing is clear, construction must take place: By 2028, Berlin will need to build around 21,300 new apartments – every year. The Pestel Institute has determined this housing construction forecast for the next four years in a new regional analysis of the housing market. “The new construction is necessary to reduce the existing deficit – after all, Berlin is currently lacking around 42,700 apartments – but also to gradually replace run-down apartments in old buildings. This particularly concerns post-war buildings where renovation is no longer worthwhile,” says Matthias Günther from the Pestel Institute.
The Berlin KURIER found out: The Pestel Institute is linked through various partners to green investors who are essentially interested in the construction of so-called smart cities, i.e. cities that will become independent of oil and other fossil fuels in the long term. Investors, in other words, who “intelligently” network new technologies in the areas of infrastructure, buildings and mobility in order to use resources such as energy and water efficiently. Investors who anticipate future-proof forms of mobility and their requirements and implement them as quickly as possible. The Pestel Institute’s reports are certainly only partially independent, but at the core of it, they are of course tackling the hot topic of our time.
40,680 apartments are empty
Matthias Günther from the Pestel Institute expects the construction workload to decline: Günther speaks of a “sluggish new housing construction that is increasingly running out of steam”. According to the Pestel Institute, in the first five months of this year there were only 4,656 new apartments in the whole of Berlin with building permits. By comparison: in 2023 there were 7,263 building permits in the same period. “This means that the willingness to create new housing in Berlin has fallen by 36 percent within just one year,” says Günther.
In Berlin-Karlshorst, the former Russian houses have been empty since reunification.Jürgen Ritter/imago
What is particularly bad is that the number of empty apartments does not change the fact that we are heading towards a housing catastrophe at 100 km/h. The current census for Berlin records around 40,680 apartments that are not being used, says Pestel. That is 2 percent of the total housing stock in the city. However, a large proportion of these – around 11,760 apartments – have been empty for a year or longer. Matthias Günther: “That is around 29 percent of the empty apartments. However, these are often apartments that no one can live in anymore. They would have to be completely renovated first – which is complex and therefore expensive.”
In principle, a certain amount of vacant housing is always necessary, says Günther. “Around 3 percent of all apartments that someone can move into immediately should be free. If only to have a buffer so that moves can go smoothly. And of course, to be able to carry out renovations in the first place. But it will rarely be possible to reactivate apartments that have been empty for a long time and bring them back to the market.”
A certain amount of vacant housing is always necessary
The reasons for this are obvious: According to observations by the Pestel Institute, many homeowners are reluctant to undertake renovations because they also represent a significant risk: “In their eyes, renovations are often a risk. They are unsure. They do not know which regulations – for example climate protection requirements – will come into force when. There is simply a lack of political reliability. There must no longer be a back and forth like with the heating law,” criticizes the director of the Pestel Institute. In addition, many people also lack the money needed for renovations.
And there are other reasons why vacant apartments are not rented out: “Time and again, no rental agreement is concluded due to inheritance disputes. And often, property owners are also reluctant to take on a tenant in their own house who they may not get along with in the end,” says Matthias Günther. For him, one thing is clear: “There is no way around building new apartments in Berlin either.”
Former officers’ houses of the US Army in Berlin-Grunewald were also empty. Schöning/imago
The Pestel Institute carried out the regional analysis of the housing market on behalf of the Federal Association of German Building Materials Retailers (BDB). Katharina Metzger is the president of the lobby association. For her, the study naturally makes one thing clear: “It is naive to compare the number of vacant apartments with the current demand for apartments. It doesn’t work like that. Politicians who are trying to do this are just pulling the wool over people’s eyes.” She is thus clearly rejecting the request made by Federal Minister for Construction Klara Geywitz (SPD). The politician had advised people who are searching for an apartment in vain and often desperately to move to the countryside.
Vacancy violates the prohibition of misuse
In order to make progress, Metzger is calling for building standards to be lowered: “Build more simply – and therefore build more cheaply. This can be done without compromising living comfort. Otherwise, soon no one will be building anymore.” The housing construction industry is currently experiencing “a real crash.” Many companies have already had to cut capacity. “The number of new buildings is plummeting. Brick manufacturers, for example, are closing factories. The wave of layoffs is rolling in: the construction industry is losing employees – including good skilled workers. And that is the last thing Germany can afford to do now,” says Katharina Metzger.
The association president, together with the Pestel Institute, warns of a “collapse spiral in new housing construction”. The situation is fatal: “Housing shortages are meeting non-housing construction. This toxic development must be stopped urgently.” It is poisonous for social interaction in society.
Incidentally, the Berlin Tenants’ Association has a clear opinion on the subject: “The snail’s pace at which vacancy is being tackled – if at all – is hardly understandable for ‘normal citizens’. The authorities have various instruments at their disposal to tackle vacant housing.” But in practice there are problems. This starts with the fact that the authorities are dependent on reports from attentive citizens – “they usually do not conduct their own research – due to a lack of staff. If caught owners then submit an application for approval, the previous vacancy has no consequences – even though it was a violation of the Misuse Prohibition Act.” ■
