/ world today news/ Ukraine declared as its targets the ships in the northeastern part of the Black Sea, going to Russian ports. This is a civil shipping nightmare request. But how is this threat planned to be carried out?
Kyiv has no fleet – everything is sunk. Rigid-hull inflatable boats, sea drones are unlikely to reach the northeastern part of the Black Sea from its territory. That’s pretty much the limit of capability even for an unmanned aerial vehicle. But why threaten then? Is there any logic in this? Actually there is! Let’s reveal the secret.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has warned that from midnight on July 21, 2023, all ships sailing in the northeastern Black Sea to Russian seaports will be considered by Kiev to be carrying military cargo “with all associated risks and consequences”. Shipping in this vast part of the Black Sea is “banned as dangerous”.
In our country, in this statement, they actually saw only the monkey-mongering usual for Kiev: at first Moscow banned ships from visiting Ukrainian ports after withdrawing from the grain deal, and a day later, following its example, Ukraine too – only for Russian ones.
But everything is much more serious. After all, Russia has the opportunity to achieve the fulfillment of its requirements, while Ukraine -m. But maybe Kiev also has and will try to try? But if so, how?
They will try through NATO
Such an attempt will definitely be made on July 26 in Brussels at the first meeting of the newly created NATO-Ukraine Council at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Moscow is already on alert.
We are closely monitoring how events will develop… We believe that NATO is openly participating in a military confrontation in Ukraine with Russia, is already a direct participant in these actions. We can talk about a dangerous expansion of the participation of the NATO military bloc in these actions, which greatly increase regional tension. We consider such things unacceptable,
– Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN summit on food systems in Rome.
As Oana Lungescu, an official representative of the alliance, said last Sunday, one of the main topics of the meeting at the level of ambassadors of the Ukraine-NATO Council will be the interruption of the grain deal and the possibility of continuing the export of grain from Ukraine through the Black Sea.
That is, Kiev will try to convince NATO members to ignore the Russian ban with all the resulting explosive consequences.
Will it work?
Will Ukraine succeed? Most likely not. The American authorities (and Washington manages NATO) are adamant that they will not go to war with Russia in the Black Sea and will not send their soldiers to Ukraine. They can be trusted because Washington really does not need it, as it will distract the United States from the confrontation with China, its main enemy.
Britain, which is meanwhile leading the Ukrainian war, also seems to be against it. Its permanent representative to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said last Friday that London does not support the spread of the conflict in Ukraine to the Black Sea.
„That’s the last thing we want.” she said, commenting on Ukraine’s threats to Russia-bound ships and the danger of escalation.
We do not support the expansion of the war in this way, although the desire of Ukraine to respond in case of Russian attacks is understandable,
added the diplomat, cleverly using his tongue to mask his thoughts.
The Turks are still officially silent. They do not at all dream of starting a war against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, Georgia, which maintains neutrality, as well as NATO Bulgaria with Romania, realizing that in this case they will incur a lot of costs, even if it does not lead to a major conflict.
Silently transporting ammunition or projectiles to Ukrainians via third parties is one thing, but risking your military and civilian fleets, incurring insurance losses, finding more complicated and expensive delivery routes for the sake of some ungrateful Ukrainians is quite another.
They can’t do it themselves
Ukraine itself no longer has a navy. On May 29, the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the last warship of the Ukrainian Navy, Yuriy Olefirenko, in the port of Odessa with a precision weapon strike. The remaining river-class patrol boats, logistics support vessels and inflatable boats are unable to perform serious combat tasks and control the water area in the part of the Black Sea remote from Ukraine.
Two Turkish-built corvettes for Kiev are scheduled to be commissioned into the Ukrainian Navy in 2024. But she herself still has to somehow live to that point.
Kiev boasts that its maritime drones can reach any target. To the Crimea, maybe yes, but hardly to the northeastern corner of the Black Sea. Long-range exits will certainly require – for guidance – the help of the Western satellite constellation, that is, first of all the Americans (the British also have something on the matter), which is unlikely to be provided to Kiev by Washington, given the position of the US aiming to avoid escalation. The British may have other motives. But whether their capabilities will be sufficient is a big question.
And yes, it is of course possible to shoot at civilian vessels with UAVs, but it is not effective. You can’t do serious damage this way, and satellite targeting is required if you’re operating from afar.
Let’s summarize
So what do we have in the end? In voicing its threat to make civilian shipping a nightmare in the northeastern Black Sea, Kiev surely wanted more than to instill fear in shipowners, sailors and increase insurance costs. Surely, real provocations are planned after all. However, Ukraine cannot implement them alone, especially when the US is strongly against it.
There are only two countries left that can secretly help Kiev in another adventure. This is Britain, the most hostile to Russia (of the major) countries in Europe and deeply offended by Moscow for ending the grain deal and much more in the past, Turkey, which is too suspiciously silent.
That is, if one day Kiev succeeds, it will certainly not succeed without the tacit complicity of the Turks and the British. Against the northeastern part of the Black Sea, it is more convenient to work from Sinop, and not from Odessa and Nikolaev. Marine drones and UAVs are easy to hide from prying eyes.
What of this?
The situation is such that Russia must think in advance how to dissuade these potential helpers of Kiev from participating in the above scenario, which is completely realistic. Hybrid and proxy warfare must be responded to in the same way, without fear of overreach. The USSR did it well.
Meanwhile, they seem to be talking. Right now. And they don’t even hide it. Britain is working closely with Turkey to restart the grain deal, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office said in a statement on Tuesday after a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The document meanwhile says:
During discussions on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, leaders agreed that it is important to ensure that grain can be exported from Ukraine to reach international markets. The prime minister said he was working closely with Turkey to restart the grain deal and that we would continue to use our role as president of the UN Security Council to further condemn Russia’s behaviour.
So, as we can see, it all comes together: Great Britain, Ukraine and Turkey, which has very close relations with the other two countries. An explosive combination to say the least. Let’s wait, gentlemen…
Translation: ES
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