In its annual labor market forecast, the UWV benefits agency predicts that the number of vacancies will increase further this year, but decrease in the coming year. The number of jobs will also increase further this year, as will the number of hours worked. This growth will also continue next year, although it will level off.
During the corona crisis, the labor market took some blows, but recovered quickly afterwards. The fact that this recovery is not continuing at the same pace is due to the new economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
The economy contracted 3.8 percent in 2020, but the number of jobs fell by only 0.3 percent. However, the number of hours worked decreased more rapidly. A year later, in 2021, the economy recovered and the number of jobs rose again above the level of 2020. However, the number of hours worked still lagged behind. An increase in the number of hours worked is expected in the coming years, but the UWV does not expect the number of hours per job to exceed the pre-corona level again in 2023.
The main cause lies in the division of working hours. The self-employed work fewer hours on average. The number of jobs for the self-employed rose sharply in 2020, but the total number of hours barely increased. As a result, the average number of hours that a self-employed person worked fell sharply.
The UWV sees a strong increase in the number of jobs, especially in the temporary employment sector and the catering industry. The UWV expects fewer jobs in the retail sector and car sales, just like in industry. The latter sector is very sensitive to the movements of the economy, but also to international developments.
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