by Domenico Maceri * –
SAN LUIS OBISPO (USA). “The overthrow of Roe vs. Wade is the greatest achievement of the conservative movement since the end of the Cold War.” With these words Laura Ingraham, one of the stars of Fox News, Rupert Murdoch’s conservative network, praised the Supreme Court’s decision to end federal abortion law and return control to the states. Ingraham went on to say conservatives should “be proud of it,” and she said those words right after the conservatives’ recent defeat in the Ohio referendum that would have changed the state constitution. The measure would have raised the threshold from a simple majority to 60 percent for approving referendums. The link with abortion doesn’t seem obvious but it exists and how.
After the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion last year, a number of “red” states, ie conservatives, took the opportunity to reduce the right to abortion. Ohio, dominated by Republicans at the legislative and executive levels, passed a law reducing the right to abortion to 6 weeks after conception, when many women are often unaware they are pregnant. The state Supreme Court is considering the legality of this new law and therefore the national precedent still remains in force, at least temporarily. However, pro-abortion activists are collecting signatures for a referendum that would maintain the right to abortion for the first 22 weeks of pregnancy. However, the Republicans have decided that to make it more difficult to pass this referendum in the election in November they would change the constitution by raising the bar to a super majority of 60 percent. They failed as only 43 percent voted for it.
Republicans in Ohio have tried to explain the referendum by arguing that raising the threshold to 60 percent would reduce the influence of money entering the state from other places for political campaigns. They have a small dose of reason as the issue of abortion echoes across the nation. In fact, more than $32 million was spent on the referendum campaign, half for each side, 80 percent of which came from other states. But their hypocrisy becomes crystal clear as in December 2022 they had agreed not to hold elections in August given the low turnout at the polls. When was the recent referendum held? Just in August when they were hoping the low flow would work to tip the outcome in their favor.
They were obviously wrong. Buckeye State voters turned out en masse and voted down their proposal that would have consolidated minority power where 40 percent of voters can impose their will in a democratic system. Nonetheless, the power of the Republicans in Ohio is already disproportionate considering the fact that with just over 54 percent of the votes received, according to data from the last ten years, they managed to win the super majority in the two houses and also elect a Republican governor.
The referendum in Ohio failed in large measure due to the energy created by the nationwide repeal of abortion. With a coalition that includes mainly Democrats but also a slice of Republican and independent voters, the right to abortion has galvanized citizens in Ohio as has already been seen elsewhere. In Kansas, Montana and Kentucky, three other “red states”, voters reacted and re-established the right to abortion in ways little different from what existed before the Supreme Court’s revocation. In another dozen conservative states that allow referendums, similar results are expected in which citizens will propose the restoration of the right to abortion. In some of these it will be an uphill battle as the constitution, as in Florida, requires the 60 percent threshold for statute amendment.
The Supreme Court’s decision last year to eliminate the nation’s right to abortion is viewed negatively by 61 percent of Americans, according to a Gallup poll last year. More recently, according to Gallup, 69 percent of Americans believe abortion should be legal in the first 3 months of pregnancy. These data align much more with the view of Democrats who do not hesitate to put the issue at the forefront of election campaigns. Republicans, on the other hand, try to stay away from it, preferring to focus on immigration and the fear of foreigners.
Abortion rights will not necessarily translate into successes at the polls for Democrats because it is not the only concern of the electorate. Nonetheless, that slice of the electorate that decides presidential elections in the so-called “swing states”, states in the balance that sometimes go to the Republicans and sometimes to the Democrats, favors the Democrats. However, the idea of eliminating the right to abortion in the red states aggravates the polarization of the country but on the other hand gives hope that the rights conquered by minority groups in recent decades will be maintained, even if not completely, and those candidates who support them they will be rewarded at the polls.
* Domenico Maceri, PhD, is professor emeritus at Allan Hancock College, Santa Maria, California. Some of his articles have won awards from the National Association of Hispanic Publications.
