The democratic party is heading for the big catastrophe
In the end, isn’t the candidate who gets the most votes nominated? This scenario is quite possible. Trump is already rubbing his hands.
The United States is in pre-election fever. Both the Democrats and the Republicans will determine their candidate for the autumn elections in the coming weeks. Voter turnouts have been high on both sides.
The case is clear with the Republicans: Donald Trump has united the party base behind him. In the state of New Hampshire, he achieved a top result. Although he has no serious opponent, the Republicans flocked to him. An incumbent US President has never been able to mobilize his base so well. If there was a need for evidence that it would be difficult to beat Trump, then at the latest he was delivered.
Sanders with a big lead – but is it big enough?
The Democrats are far less in agreement. The field is still large, no less than six candidates can still calculate opportunities. Nevertheless, a favorite is slowly but surely emerging: it is Bernie Sanders.
The indestructible Vermont senator not only did well in the first two primaries, he also leads the national polls. Now even with well over ten percentage points. As of today, Sanders is the most popular candidate among democratic voters. This should remain the case after the Nevada primary, which will take place on Saturday. The 78-year-old also has convincing survey values here.
The chances are good that Sanders will have the most votes and most delegates after the primaries. But that doesn’t mean that he can compete against Trump.
Because the candidate of the Democrats will only be determined in mid-June at the “Democratic National Convention” in Milwaukee. And there could be a nasty surprise waiting for Sanders. However, it shouldn’t really surprise him because he knows the nomination system very well.
Here’s how it works:
- There are a number of delegates per state. There are a total of 3979. You are running in a first ballot and have to stick to the candidate who won your vote.
- If 50 percent of the delegates vote for a candidate, he has won. If none of the candidates achieve the absolute majority, it becomes complicated.
- Then so-called “super delegates” come into play, who can choose who they want. You are not bound by the voting result in the States. There are a total of 771 “superdelegates”. They are party leaders, gray eminences of the party. Say: The party establishment, which Sanders is not in a very good mood because he politicizes on the left margin, calls himself independent and only belongs to the party because of the election campaign.
The convention could ignore Sanders
Because of this system, it is possible that a candidate who did not get the most votes in the primaries may be nominated in the end. That is when the super delegates coordinate and support the same candidate.
Criticism of this approach was already voiced in 2016. Sanders supporters feared that the super delegates would vote for Hillary Clinton. As a result, the system was adapted: This year, the super delegates can only run in a second ballot, not already in the first.
Although the power of the super delegates has been somewhat restricted, the Sanders supporters are afraid of them again this year. Of course, it takes a long time for all states to vote, but the scenario that Sanders will get the most votes but not the necessary 50 percent is currently quite likely.
And on one thing, the democratic candidates – except Sanders – agreed in their last TV debate: the one with the most votes should not be automatically nominated. Say: According to Klobuchar, Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Warren, the super delegates should have a say. The latter suddenly turned her opinion about 180 by the way.
Big break threatens
The democratic party is heading towards a disaster. If Sanders is not nominated by the convention, although he has the most supporters, it could lead to a big break in the party. The Sanders supporters, who felt betrayed by the party elite in 2016, should definitely turn their backs on the Democrats. “It would take decades for the party to recover,” said Barack Obama’s former campaign manager David Plouffe.
The influential left podcast presenter Kyle Kulinski has already announced that millions of Sanders fans would take to the streets if the convention took away his nomination.
Trump is happy
Meanwhile, Donald Trump rubs his hands and gleefully exploits the disagreement in the Democratic Party. He wrote on Twitter that the democratic primary was “manipulated”. The convention is working overtime to remove Sanders’ nomination.
Trump sees a win-win situation: If Sanders is ignored at the convention, many of his fans will probably stay away from the ballot box in the November elections. If Sanders is nominated, Trump is happy anyway. The president would love to compete against Sanders, especially since he gives the left Vermont senator much less credit than a moderate candidate.
Whether Sanders really had no chance against Trump can be doubted. What is clear, on the other hand, is that the Democrats are heading for a horror scenario – the big break is imminent – and the president is currently the profiteer.