Inflation remained stable in September in the US at + 6.2% over a year and + 0.3% over a month, according to the PCE index, Fed-favored inflation measures published Friday by the Commerce Department.
This is in line with analysts’ expectations.
Household incomes also increased by 0.4% in September, as in August and as expected, and their spending also remained stable, at + 0.6%, an increase however somewhat stronger than expected.
This data comes two weeks after the publication of another measure of inflation, the CPI index, which is a particular reference for the indexation of pensions. The September data, published in mid-October, showed a very timid slowdown over a year (8.2% versus 8.3% the previous month), and even a further acceleration over a month. , at + 0.4%.
The American old-age and disability pensions, indexed to the CPI, will thus experience, from January, their strongest revaluation since 1981, their index has been raised by 8.7%, or an average increase in payments of over 140 dollars per year. month.
The PCE inflation index is the one taken into consideration by the American central bank (Fed), which aims to reduce this price increase to 2%.
Political priority
Inflation considerably reduces the purchasing power of households and is the economic priority of political leaders.
It is the Fed that is maneuvering to curb this price hike, and this requires a voluntary slowdown in economic activity. To do this, the central bank raises its main key rate, which raises the interest rates on loans for individuals and businesses.
It is expected to decide, at its next meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, on a further increase.
But that risks pushing the world’s largest economy into recession in 2023. Because the 2.6% growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3 2022, after two quarters of contraction, could be just a momentary bright stain.
Especially since many other regions of the world, which are also facing high inflation, are in danger of experiencing a severe economic slowdown or even a recession. And that the strength of the dollar against other currencies is an export handicap for American companies.
/ ATS
