The US employment figures for December were much worse than expected, experts missed seriously. The Oslo Stock Exchange reacts negatively to the figures.
On the first Friday of the month, the US employment figures are published. And the figures for December show that 199,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector. Unemployment in the United States at the end of the month was 3.9 percent, which is actually lower than forecast.
According to US statistics, employment rose in sectors such as the leisure and accommodation markets, for academics, manufacturing and the construction industry, but also transport and warehousing.
Handelsbanken wrote in its morning report that job growth of 425,000 was expected after a disappointing 210,000 in November. Unemployment was forecast to fall to 4.1 per cent. The gap was thus slightly lower, and the number of unemployed fell by 483,000 from November to 6.3 million at the end of December.
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The most important in the world
According to Handelsbanken’s experts, the real expectations for job growth may have been even higher, because strong figures came from the labor market earlier this week. DNB Markets operates with 450,000 new expected jobs, while expectations elsewhere add up to 400,000.
The employment figures, so-called Nonfarm Payrolls, is often called the world’s most important key figure. Large deviations from expectations can affect the stock markets. Before the figures were published, the main index on the Oslo Stock Exchange was 1207.70 points, an increase of 0.26 percent
The whole ascent is gone15. minutes after the figures became known in the market (see graph below)
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In the morning, Handelsbanken’s experts predicted a continued weak development in employment in the service sector. However, the broad labor market was expected to show a stronger development than what we saw in November, because there has been a further decline in the number of new unemployment benefit applicants.
When the pandemic broke out in March 2020, unemployment was down to 3.5 per cent, the number outside the labor market was 5.7 million.
It was the lowest level since the late 60’s. The employment rate is now 1.5 percentage points lower than before the pandemic. The American labor market is struggling with the supply of labor. There is a mismatch between the competence of those who are outside and what the companies want.
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Hangs again
But the supply side (occupational participation) in the American labor market is still lagging behind. This means that the labor market is tightening further, which can accelerate wage growth.
A positive sign is that the number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks) is declining. In December, the number was down to 2.0 million, a decrease of 185,000 from November.
The US economy is now characterized by high inflation and the risk of more interest rate increases. The interest rate report this week from the US Federal Reserve boosted further speculation about a rate hike as early as March.
Handelsbanken writes that there is around an 80 percent probability of a US interest rate increase in two months. Norges Bank also signaled a further increase in March.
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