by Domenico Maceri * –
SAN LUIS OBISPO (USA). “I believe President Biden is an extraordinary man, a man who saved our country, and undoubtedly the best individual for the job four years ago.” Thus Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota, in an interview with the Public Broadcasting System (PBS) while describing the current US president. Phillips went on to emphasize Biden’s integrity, competence and decency.
After singing the praises, though, Phillips said the current incumbent in the White House should pass the torch. At the very least Phillips suggested that the Democratic Party should give serious thought to the importance of other leaders challenging Biden in the Democratic Party primary.
In fact, a weak challenge to Biden for his party’s nomination has already surfaced. Robert F. Kennedy, nephew of President John F. Kennedy, and Marianne Williamson declared their candidacy for the Democratic Party nomination. Kennedy, an environmental lawyer, in part because of his surname notoriety, has managed to pave the way for the nomination, currently reaching 15 percent of the vote, according to polls. Williamson, a writer with spiritualistic themes, would get 4 percent. Biden would be at 62 percent, therefore safe and sound.
Phillips, however, insists that others should take the field, especially moderate candidates, preferably from one of the so-called “swing states”, the swing states that typically decide presidential elections. In particular, Phillips would prefer the candidacy of Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, or Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, both of whom have done an excellent job. He would add Rafael Warnock, Senator from Georgia, and maybe a few others like Gavin Newsom, Governor of California. However, none of these have indicated interest in challenging Biden even though Newsom has made a name for himself largely as the leader of the most populous and important state. There has recently been talk of a debate between him and Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, and candidate for the Republican nomination. The two would represent opposite poles both geographically and ideologically.
Phillips fears that the inevitability of Biden’s candidacy could eventually repeat the 2016 election in which Hillary Clinton was also presented as an inevitable standard-bearer for the Democratic Party. It is true that Bernie Sanders, the left-wing candidate, gave her a hard time in the primaries, but in the end Clinton prevailed. The disastrous result, for Phillips, saw Donald Trump conquer the White House, which has done so much damage in the country and also in the rest of the world. When Biden ran in 2020, she did so to deny Trump a second term that would have been worse than the first. It should be remembered, however, that Biden in March 2020, when he had almost won his party’s nomination, said that he saw his candidacy as “a bridge”. He had suggested that he would not run for a second term.
Phillips’ concern in Biden’s re-nomination focuses on a few well-known factors. First of all there is age: Biden is 80 years old and if he were to win re-election in 2024 he would be 82 at the inauguration. There is also little enthusiasm on the part of the Democratic electorate for his re-nomination. Furthermore, the challenge of a credible candidate for the nomination could be a harbinger of his presidential defeat in 2024. History indicates this.
When an unpopular sitting president runs for a second term and faces an opponent for the nomination, the results are far from positive. In 1976 incumbent Gerald Ford was challenged by Ronald Reagan for the Republican Party nomination. Ford eventually prevailed but was eventually defeated by Jimmy Carter who had a similar experience 4 years later. In 1980 Carter was unpopular in foreign policy for the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the capture of 52 US hostages at the Tehran embassy. Edward Kennedy, Senator from Massachusetts, challenged Carter for the nomination giving him a hard time but in the end he had to throw in the towel. Carter, however, was defeated by Reagan in the 1980 general election. In 1992, George HW Bush, challenged by ultra-right candidate Pat Buchanan, challenged him for the nomination, but he too lost. In the election Bush also had to face Ross Perot, a populist candidate, who stole his votes, paving the way for Bill Clinton to win the White House.
There’s no question that a challenge for the sitting president’s nomination could be fatal. It is partly due to the resources needed to defeat the opponents but also because it confirms the lack of control of his party. Trump, the probable Republican standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential elections, knows something about it. He did not appear at the first debate of his party for the primaries because the polls give him the overwhelming favor and he does not want to legitimize his opponents. At the same time he wants to suggest that he already has his party’s nomination in his pocket.
* Domenico Maceri, PhD, is professor emeritus at Allan Hancock College, Santa Maria, California. Some of his articles have won awards from the National Association of Hispanic Publications.
