USA and Canada may be calm, Germany-Italy are in fog

Jakarta –

Russia has banned oil exports to G7 countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, the United States (USA), as well as Australia and the European Union. However, only part of the country will rush for supplies.

This Russian policy is a form of revenge by Russian President Vladimir Putin against these countries for implementing a policy of price caps on oil imports.

The executive director of the Economic and Finance Development Institute (INDEF), Tauhid Ahmad, said that while the United States and Canada would be even calmer. This is because the US was able to produce 18.8 million barrels of oil and Canada 5.6 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the countries that will seek other oil supplies are France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain and the European Union.

“US produced about 18.8 million barrels, Canada 5.6 million barrels, China 4.9 million barrels, Iraq 4.1 million barrels, United Arab Emirates 3.8 million barrels, Brazil 3.7 million barrels, Iran 3.4 million barrels and Kuwait 2.7 million barrels,” he said. detikcom, Wednesday (28/12/2022).

Although Tauhid said that the increase in oil prices due to Russia’s actions will certainly be felt by all countries. The price of oil or crude is expected to rise above US$100 a barrel.

“This applies to all countries, bar none, the price of crude oil has increased,” he said.

Tauhid also explained that the strategy chosen by the countries affected by Putin’s policies was to buy oil from other countries. For example, European Union countries will tend to persuade members of OPEC+ countries to distribute their oil.

“These countries buy most from intermediate countries, so it is likely that Russia will export to Turkey on a large scale. So Europe can buy from Turkey because it has good relationship. But the price will be much higher. Or by seducing the countries in OPEC so that it goes down, again the price will not be the same,” he explained.

Contacted separately, economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia Yusuf Rendy also said that G7 countries that do not have their own oil production can get what they need from OPEC countries. Even if it is recognized, if there is one limit on supply from Russia that cannot be avoided it is a price increase.

“So even if these countries can still get their oil, the price has the potential to go up,” he said.

Yusuf explained that what needs to be paid attention to is also when oil prices rise, the tendency for the impact of higher inflation.

“Although we know that inflation in these countries, like the US, is currently on a relatively high trend and if the price of oil rises next year due to limited supply, inflation in these countries will definitely rise.” , he concluded. .

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(ada/zlf)