While the key figures from the pre-election period so far indicate that a Donald Trump victory is imminent, with statisticians giving him about 60% of the required number of electors (that is, over 270), the outcome of the US election is not never easy to predict either because small last-minute changes in voter preferences or “silent waves” of votes especially in “key states” can very easily give victory to the other side.
Small victory Harris- probably through the “blue wall”.
Although this is considered an extremely likely scenario, everything will depend on the turnout in the “key states”. That’s because Harris, according to the latest polls, currently holds a slight lead in four of the seven swing states — Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — which puts her on track for 276 electoral votes.
According to estimates, Harris could win with just the three northern “blue wall” states if she also took voters from the second electoral district of Nebraska and Maine (which she will take as they traditionally vote Democratic).
See also: US Election: Harris or Trump? – What the betting shows for the winner, electors and popular vote
If Harris secures the presidency through the blue wall and by the slim margin this scenario gives her, it will be due to some very interesting factors.
The main one is that in order to prevail, she will have to support a large part of the white and older voters of these states, who in general, if they have not already switched to the Republicans, are not unlikely to do so now. Democrats have historically had very good relations with this segment of voters in the region, but things have changed in recent years. Democrats have also seen declines in support overall among other key groups, such as blacks, Hispanics and young voters, but especially those states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that have a higher average age and more whites than the rest of the states keys.
In the past—pre-Trump—Democrats did better in these states and among white voters without a college degree, who collectively make up the core of Trump’s electorate. Notably, Barack Obama won all of them by more than five points in both 2008 and 2012. The fourth state in which Harris has a small lead — Nevada — was also bluer before Trump.
Small Trump victory – possibly through the East
Trump’s most likely path to victory also runs through three key states. His campaign has appeared to build a lot of ground in recent months in Georgia, North Carolina and (like Harris) Pennsylvania.
Polls in Pennsylvania are at least inconclusive as Harris’ lead is below one. Trump has long held a slim lead in Georgia, and North Carolina polls show he may be widening his slim lead there.
Should he win this way, Trump will owe it to the gains he made in the Black voting community. Georgia and North Carolina have by far the largest Black populations among the key states, and Pennsylvania’s electorate is nearly 10 percent black.
Democrats are concerned that black men, in particular, are more reluctant to vote for a woman president, so Obama has been quick to help Harris court that group politically.
Trump takes the ‘Sun Belt’
Trump appears to have an alternative way of winning, since he almost certainly has the southern half of the country. Of course, some northern state will definitely be needed.
Trump has his best numbers in the “sun belt” states, notably Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Nevada, with its limited public polls, is a wild card that could swing one way or the other.
In this scenario, Trump would have to win more states to win the presidency, since even if he won all four of these states, he would have to take one of the northern states as well.
Trump seems to be doing better across the “sun belt,” because their electorates are more diverse. The four states mentioned are all more diverse than their northern neighbors, and as reported, polls actually show Trump gains among black and Hispanic voters.
Issues of concern to voters in those states include housing costs, which have risen more there than in northern states. Another issue is irregular immigration. The issue, an important part of the campaign, is expected to play an important role in whether Trump manages to “take” Arizona and Nevada, given the proximity of those states to the border and the highest percentages of undocumented immigrants living there.
From there, the question would become which northern state Trump could take. Wisconsin lost it by a thread in 2020 (0.6 points), but polls in Pennsylvania show it will be the swing state this year.
A “storm” Harris
Although unlikely, Harris could win in a landslide — the percentages in key states are actually very close — if she widens her national poll lead.
If he tops the statewide polls by about two points, he could sweep all seven key states. And if the polls fall out by as much as they did in 2012 (when they underestimated Obama’s victory), he could win at least five of the seven key seats and about 300 electoral votes.
If Harris succeeds, she would not only be the first female president, but she would do so largely because of her championing of abortion rights. This proved to be a key issue in the 2022 midterm elections after the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade, and the Democrats posted one of the best performances in recent history for the party of a sitting president.
Doing so would mean Trump has lost significant ground among white women. Indeed polls show that he is currently lagging significantly in this category compared to both 2016 and 2020.
Also read: US Elections: Why they are always held on the first Tuesday of November – The history and the paradox
A Trump “storm”.
It’s well known that the polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020, and many believe that’s the case now as well.
If the same mistake really happens this time, analysts have calculated that Trump will not only win comfortably, but he starts from 306 electors and above and will also have the superiority in actual number of votes.
In this scenario, which for many is the key scenario of this election, Trump’s major polling gains come from the Black and Hispanic voter communities, especially men. That would mean he’s on track to win over young black men and 40-something Hispanic voters. In this scenario it is not unlikely that other groups will appear to shift towards Trump. In this case, the main “problem” of the voters is that they do not want to vote for a woman for president, and this, according to experts, is not recorded in the polls.
The fact that Trump appears to be more popular than he was on the 2016 or 2020 campaign, when only 4 in 10 Americans liked him, may also play a role.
Recent polls show his average favorability rating is over 43%, and retrospective approval of his presidency is even higher. A Washington Post-Schar School poll last week showed 51 percent of voters in seven key states approved of his presidency.
A little bit of everything
The above scenarios ignore the real possibility that something unexpected will come out of the polls that, on the face of it, makes no sense.
Maybe the northern states and the “sun belt” states will split, for various reasons.
Maybe Harris will lose some of the northern states, but make up for it with Nevada and North Carolina — a state that Trump may have won twice, but it’s a state that has a rapidly changing population and where Republicans worry about low turnout in Trump-friendly areas hardest hit by the recent hurricane.
Maybe Trump will win Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.
All of these states are close enough that they can change in either direction. In every election, we see states that surprise us, as the polling errors show. Clinton didn’t pay much attention to Wisconsin in 2016, after all, and she ended up losing it.
Draw
Although unlikely in practice, it is theoretically possible that there would be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
The most likely scenario for this is that Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but loses the rest and Nebraska’s 2nd district.
Assuming he wins as expected in Nebraska’s 2nd district, the most likely scenario is that Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and either North Carolina or Georgia – and none of the other key states.
At this point, we’ll have what’s known as a “conditional election,” in which the House of Representatives will elect the president by casting one ballot for each state.
Which party controls the most will depend on the election results of the 2024 election. But right now, it seems significantly more likely to be the Republican party. Ties in some and other factors could affect any results.
Read also
US Elections: Why the ‘Blue Wall’ and the ‘Sun Belt’ Will Decide the Harris-Trump Battle
US Election: When will we know if Harris or Trump won – What happens in case of a… tie
US Election: Trump Threatens If He Loses, Harris Struggles – Ex-President Toxic To The End
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