The Pentagon is worried. In a report released Wednesday, the US Department of Defense estimates that Beijing is developing its nuclear arsenal much faster than expected and can already launch ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads from land, sea and air.
“The acceleration of the nuclear expansion of China could allow it to have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027”, indicates this annual report of the Pentagon on the military capacities of China. “It is likely that Beijing will seek to acquire at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, which is higher than the rate and volume estimated in 2020.”
In the previous edition of this report to Congress, published on September 1, 2020, the Pentagon estimated that China had “about 200” nuclear warheads, but estimated that this number would double over the next ten years. With 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, the projections of the American military show a very strong acceleration of Beijing’s nuclear activities. “China has probably already established a nuclear triad nascent ”, that is to say the ability to launch nuclear ballistic missiles from the sea, land and air, according to this document.
“It’s very worrying for us”
To arrive at these figures, the authors of the report relied in particular on statements by Chinese officials in official media and on satellite images showing the construction of a significant number of nuclear silos, a senior official told the press. Ministry of Defense, by presenting this document, only part of which is made public, the rest being classified as a defense secret.
The projections include submarine ballistic missiles and those launched by bombers, as well as the “mobile missile force”, which allows missiles to be launched from trucks, according to the official who requested anonymity. “It is very worrying for us”, he admitted, adding that this acceleration “raises questions about their intentions”.
Even with 1,000 nuclear warheads, the Chinese arsenal would be far from equaling that of the United States and Russia, which together possess more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons: 5,550 for Washington and 6,255 for Moscow, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) estimates.
An attack from Taiwan “not likely”
In October 2020, the Chinese Communist Party set itself the goal of modernizing the theories, organization, personnel, armaments and equipment of its army by 2027, the report recalls. “If they are achieved, these objectives would give Beijing more credible military options vis-à-vis Taiwan”, underlines the document.
Asked Wednesday during a conference on the short-term risk of an attack on Taiwan by China, the American chief of staff, General Mark Milley, estimated that it was “not likely” in the next 24 months. But the United States has “absolutely the capacity” to defend the island located less than 200 km from the Chinese coast, he said.
The passes of arms have multiplied in recent weeks between China and the United States on the fate of the territory, governed by a democratic government, but considered as a Chinese province by Beijing which says it is determined to operate a “reunification”, by force if necessary. US President Joe Biden recently asserted that the United States has “a commitment” to militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
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