US-Turkey: How Ankara’s relations with Washington are changing after Trump’s election –

O Donald Trump will be the fifth president of the USA with whom he will work Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his long rule since 2002 and the only one with whom his political temperament matched.

Trump’s and Erdogan’s policy practices, as well as their worldviews, are broadly in line. The two men had developed a strong relationship during Trump’s first term as president. And when the first clouds appeared in their relations, they kept a channel of communication through their sons-in-law, the Jared Kushner and his Berat Albayrakintroducing the term “groom diplomacy” into the literature of international relations. For Erdogan, personal contact with other leaders is important, and so for Trump. It is an element that was lost during the Biden administration in the Ankara-Washington axis.

Tayyip Erdogan’s first (enthusiastic) message welcoming Donald Trump’s election victory betrayed his intention for a new page in US-Turkey relations, but putting forward his own agenda. In the message he posted on platform X, the Turkish president noted that in this new period, which begins with the choice of the American people, he hopes to strengthen American-Turkish relations and end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, while at the same time expressing his belief that efforts will be made for a more just world. In his message, the Turkish president called Donald Trump “his friend” and wished the outcome of the election to be auspicious “for the friend and ally of the American people and all of humanity.”

The change in the upper echelons of US diplomacy with Trump’s assumption of the presidency and his stated intention to pursue a different foreign policy now gives the Turkish president an opportunity to try to change the image of his country as a disreputable ally in Washington . This is of course to the extent possible, as the difference of opinion between the two sides is not only a matter of personalities, but mainly of conflicting political goals – the US is considered an obstacle to the realization of Turkish ambitions in the region, at least at the present time.

Even before Trump’s victory was announced, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan declared that the election result would not lead to a serious change in Turkish foreign policy. Turkey will continue its work in the same way, said the head of Turkish diplomacy.

the “thorns”

A key priority and point of friction for Turkey in its relations with the United States is American support for the Syrian Kurds, who pose a potential threat to Ankara. In the past, Trump had announced that he would withdraw American troops from Syria. He had even characteristically said that we buried a trillion. dollars in the Middle East. In the end, however, he hadn’t.

Will he do it now? Probably not. Trump supports Israel and an American withdrawal from Syria would weaken it. Erdogan, on the other hand, supports Hamas and other organizations that the US describes as extremist.

The regional planning of the new Trump administration focuses on Israel and it seems that this element will be a decisive factor, which will not only affect Ankara’s relations with Washington in the coming period, but will also touch Greece, Cyprus, Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. In the decision-making centers of Ankara, assessments are made taking for granted that US policy aims to change the balance of power in the Middle East with the help of Israel.

In their international environment, the Turks see that the US is upgrading its foreign policy to countries in the wider region such as Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Jordan, Gulf countries, etc., while Turkey’s foreign policy, in to the extent that it wants to define itself and be autonomous, it cannot but be on a collision course with the United States.

Even if the “turn” in such strategic moves is difficult, there are still some individual moves that Ankara expects from the next US president. For example, to remove the special coordinator of the White House National Security Council for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, a “red flag” for Turkey, whom he accuses of supporting the terrorist activity of the PKK. During Trump’s first term, McGurk stepped down in 2018 as a special envoy for the fight against Islamic State when the US withdrawal from Syria was announced, but Biden brought him back in an upgraded role.

Fighter planes

However, more important for Turkey is the issue of the supply of F-16 fighters, for which the signatures have been entered, but the technical consultations have been delayed for months. A complete impasse exists on the issue of F-35 fighters, from whose program the US expelled Turkey when it bought the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system. Turkey is now asking for the return of the money, about $1.4 billion it paid for its participation in the program.

Turkish Foreign Ministry officials also estimate that Trump will withdraw his support from Ukraine and make a deal with Russia. There they see that the Turkish policy that did not close the door to Moscow is vindicated.

Finally, there is the wait in Ankara to meet the target of $100 billion in annual trade volume, a promise that has been recycled for years.

Source: RES