‘US Trump-Biden rematch’, Taiwan ‘US-China proxy war’… global tectonic shift [2024 선거 슈퍼볼]
photo">Former U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and President Joe Biden are speaking at the presidential debate held at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. [AP]
[헤럴드경제=김영철 기자]With elections being held in over 50 countries this year, the election that is drawing the most attention is by far the U.S. presidential election held on November 5. As of now, there is a high possibility of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Public opinion polls so far show that former President Trump is slightly ahead of President Biden. The results of the U.S. presidential election are attracting attention not only from allies but also around the world, as they have a significant impact on the global economy and security policies.
Another super match is Taiwan’s presidential election. Taiwan’s presidential election, which will be held on January 13, the first of its kind among major countries, will be contested by Lai Ching-de, the pro-American and independence-oriented ruling Democratic Progressive Party candidate, Hou Yui, the pro-Beijing candidate of the main opposition Kuomintang, and Keo of the centrist second opposition People’s Party. It is scheduled to be a three-way match between the original candidates. This election, which will be a proxy war between China, which is trying to achieve its goal of unifying Taiwan by increasing its control in the Taiwan Strait, and the United States, which is trying to keep it in check, is expected to be an inflection point in U.S.-China relations and the global economy.
▶The presidential election has been hot since the beginning of the year… Biden with low approval rating vs. judicial risk Trump = If President Biden is confirmed as the Democratic candidate and former President Trump is confirmed as the Republican candidate, a rematch between former and current presidents following the 2020 presidential election will take place.
photo">U.S. President Joe Biden is giving a speech while visiting the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. on the 20th (local time). [AP]
The U.S. presidential primary, which is held prior to the presidential election, is conducted in two ways: a caucus (party convention) in which only party members participate in voting, and a primary (preliminary primary) in which general voters without party affiliation participate. The Republican Party’s first caucus will be held in Iowa on the 15th of this month, and the first primary will be held in New Hampshire on the 23rd. The Democratic Party officially decided on February 3rd to hold the South Carolina primary as its first primary. In fact, the presidential race is expected to heat up from the beginning of the year.
The competition between the two parties’ candidates is expected to be decided through ‘Super Tuesday’ on March 5th, when primary elections are held simultaneously in the most states. Once each state completes its presidential primary, the Republican Party will hold a national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in mid-July, and the Democratic Party will hold a national convention in Chicago, Illinois in mid-August to select the party’s presidential candidate.
President Biden’s approval rating remains at 40%, lagging behind Trump. It is analyzed that the supply chain disruption and high inflation following the pandemic had an impact. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its third year, and the war between Israel and Hamas, which broke out in October last year, has also failed to reach a ceasefire. His age of 81, the oldest in the history of a U.S. presidential candidate, is also a negative factor.
Former President Trump is being held back by ‘judicial risk’. He was criminally indicted on 91 charges, including overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election, leaking and illegally storing state secrets, and keeping quiet about sexual scandals. On January 6, 2021, he was found guilty of participating in a rebellion related to the riot at the Capitol, and was ruled to be disqualified from running for president in Colorado and Maine.
photo">Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump attends a campaign event held in Waterloo, Iowa, USA on the 19th (local time). [로이터]
▶Intensification of protectionism, damage to democracy… Risks in the United States = The economist pointed out, “The biggest risk facing the world next year is Trump.” During his tenure, former President Trump shook up the international order by advocating ‘America First’ and was willing to threaten allies if it was for his country’s interests. The economist predicted that it would have a wide-ranging impact on everything from trade and security as well as climate policy to military support for Ukraine.
Former President Trump has already hinted at abolishing President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and strengthening protectionism by adding a 10% tariff to all imported products.
There is a possibility that a red flag may be raised regarding support for Ukraine. On the 25th, former President Trump criticized through his social media that those involved in the Ukraine war were destroying the once great United States. It is impossible to predict how the situation will turn in the Israeli-Palestinian war.
If President Trump overcomes various judicial risks, runs for office, and is elected, the status of the United States, known as the home of modern democracy, could be damaged. Additionally, in a global situation fraught with serious geopolitical risks, the United States itself, which advocates its own priority, may emerge as a risk.
Former President of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Richard Haas predicted, “If former President Trump enters the White House again, President Biden’s ‘allies first’ policy will return to ‘America First.’”
Whether Biden or Trump, the trend of seeing China as the biggest threat and strengthening checks is expected to continue. However, if the return of former President Trump, who has pursued a tougher policy toward China, becomes a reality, there is a high possibility that it will once again shake up the global trade landscape.
In fact, former President Trump announced plans to upset normal trade relations with China, including imposing high tariffs on all imports from toys to industrial products. For companies, this leads to further heightened uncertainty.
photo">On the 10th, Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-de speaks at an election rally held in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. [EPA]
▶Taiwan’s presidential election in a proxy war between the U.S. and China… Who will laugh? = The key to Taiwan’s presidential election is whether the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party, the current ruling party, will be replaced by the pro-China Kuomintang. Depending on who wins, whether the United States or China will laugh depends on who wins, and it is called a proxy war between the U.S. and China.
With about 10 days left until the election, it was found that the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, who is anti-China and pro-American, is ahead of the pro-China Kuomintang candidate by more than 11 percentage points.
According to an opinion poll conducted by Taiwan’s Internet media outlet ‘Beautiful Challenger News’ on 1,326 adults aged 20 or older from the 26th to the 28th of last month and released on the 29th, the Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-de and vice-presidential candidate Xiao Mei-qin won 40.2% of the approval rating, beating Kuomintang’s Hou. He defeated President Yu Yi and Vice President Zhao Shaokang (28.7%). The approval rating of the centrist People’s Party’s presidential candidate Ke Won-je and Vice-President Wu Shin-ying ranked third with 18.4%.
The gap between the Democratic Progressive Party candidate and the National Party candidate is gradually widening from the 4% level 20 days ago. As a result, China is showing its nervousness. On the 20th of last month, China’s State Council put pressure on China by announcing that it would stop reducing tariffs on 12 imported items from Taiwan starting from the new year. He continued to strongly criticize the Democratic Progressive Party, calling it a ‘force that brings war.’
After the independence-oriented Democratic Progressive Party came to power in succession in 2016 and 2020, cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan have been tense. The strong economic closeness that followed the cross-strait reconciliation mood during the previous Kuomintang administration was completely reversed.
For China, if the Democratic Progressive Party wins the election again, it could lose an important bridgehead in the struggle for hegemony with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. The plan to restore relations with Taiwan and provide relief to the United States’ control of high-tech exports to China may also come to naught.
Conversely, if the Kuomintang takes power, the United States will suffer a blow to blocking China’s maritime hegemony through the South China Sea. In addition, the United States has taken advantage of the deteriorating cross-Strait relations to bring Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s No. 1 foundry semiconductor company, into the control line of semiconductors in China, but this is not expected to be easy to maintain once the Kuomintang takes power.
For this reason, the war of nerves between the United States and China is intensifying. At the U.S.-China military talks that resumed on December 21 after 16 months, China warned against U.S. interference in Taiwan and pledged, “China will resolutely preserve national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” However, soon after, President Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, which strengthens Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
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2023-12-31 22:01:00
