Data on U.S. trading activity in August was scarce and the market was still waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting this week. On Tuesday (23) the major US stock indices rose and fell.
Before the deadline,Industrial average of the Dow Jonesdown by almost 0.2%,Nasdaq Composite Indexincreased by almost 0.3%,S&P 500 Indexincreased by almost 0.1%,Semiconductor of PhiladelphiaThe index rose more than 1%.
The latest data shows that the US Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit new lows for more than two years in August, including the Services and Composite PMI fell into contraction territory for the second. consecutive month, and the economy has deteriorated significantly.
The initial value of the US Markit Services PMI in August was 44.1, lower than the expected value of 49.8, the 27-month low, and the previous value was 47.3; the initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in August was 51.3, lower than the expected value of 51.8, a record in 25 months A new low, the previous value was 52.2, the starting value of the US composite PMI Markit in August was 45, a low in 27 months, and the previous value was 47.7.
After US stocks took the biggest dip in two months yesterday,S&P 500 IndexAndNasdaq 100 Index futures were volatile. 10-year US Treasury yields remain above 3%US dollar indexEven hovering over a five-week high, investors are evaluating new evidence that inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war are dragging the global economy into a recession.
Traders are bracing for possible hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, after recent comments from Fed officials have led many investors to believe the central bank will continue to strengthen. its currency policy, even if it slows economic growth. However, some analysts believe Powell could catch market traders off guard in a more subtle way, triggering a new easing rally.
Markets initially bounced back on bets that the Fed would change its rate hike path next year, but financial institution ING said the market now expects Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. suggests that the Fed remains aggressive.
The Fed is currently walking on a tightrope, trying to control price pressures by avoiding a recession, and its quantitative tightening policy will kick off next month, creating another potential headwind for the equity market.
Europe,EURThe regional composite PMI has remained below the prosperity and decline line for two consecutive months, economic sentiment continues to decline, fears of a recession intensify, and the European Central Bank (ECB) future path to raise interest rates. interest will be more difficult.
Data released by IHS Markit on Tuesday showed thisEURPreliminary reading of the district’s August composite PMI was 49.2, slightly above the market expectation of 49, lower than the previous value of 49.9, and hit an 18-month low.
On the energy front, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said “extreme” volatility and lack of liquidity in the crude oil futures market has pushed oil prices away from fundamentals, potentially forcing the Organization of oil exporting countries and partners (OPEC +) a The cut in production caused international oil prices to stop falling and rebound Tuesday, with a jump of more than 1%.
At press time, October Brent crude futures were up 1.45% to $ 97.88 a barrel; West Texas October crude oil futures rose 1.86% to $ 92.04 a barrel.
As of 9:00 pm on Tuesday (23) Taipei time:
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NIO (NIO-US) was down 4.67% to $ 18.07 at the start of trading
NIO is preparing to enter several new markets by the end of the year. Deutsche Bank, a Wall Street investment bank, is optimistic about NIO’s long-term growth strategy and reiterates a “Buy” stock rating and target price of $ 45 per share. NIO stock was down 0.9 percent in pre-market trading on Tuesday, to $ 18.78 per share.
It is worth noting that Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in the report that Li Bin, the founder of Weilai Automobile, visited the headquarters of the future in the United States and sent people to search for the location of the first shop of the future car in the United States. US in downtown San Francisco The example reveals that NIO’s willingness to enter the US market is quite strong. NIO previously said it would enter the US market in 2025.
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD-USA) rose 1.10% to $ 12.85 per share at the start of the trade
After the HBO series of Warner Bros. Discovery’s video streaming service “Game of Thrones” ended in May 2019, the discussion of the public has not yet died down and the dramatic spin-off “House of the Dragon” has been released in the HBO GO area of the audiovisual platform CATCHPLAY + yesterday (22) and a large number of fans registered on the platform, causing the HBO Max to crash for a time, with a total of 9.986 million viewers in the United States Watch to update the record history.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW-USA) rose 10.70% to $ 562.39 per share at the start of the trade
Network security company Palo Alto Networks benefited from growing demand for network security software and performed well in the last quarter, with revenues up 27% year-on-year to $ 1.6 billion and industry earnings per share were $ 2.39, both of which were better than previous estimates. In addition, the company’s executives said that due to the uncertainty of the future macroeconomic environment, the valuation is conservative and announced that the stock will be split in three and that the divided shares will begin trading on September 14.
The main economic data today:
- July building permits in the US were revised at a monthly rate of -0.6%, the previous value was -1.3%
- The revised annualized total of building permits in the United States registered 1.685 million units in July, compared to the previous value of 1.674 million units
- The starting value of the US Markit Composite PMI in August was 45.0, expected at 49.0, and the previous value of 47.7
- US 8Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 51.3, expected 52.0, previous value was 52.2
- The initial value of the US 8Markit Services PMI was reset to 44.1, expected to be 49.2, the previous value was 47.3
- The monthly growth rate of new home sales in the United States for July was -12.6%, the previous value -7.1%
- Annualized total US new home sales in July were 511,000 units, predicted 575,000 units and the previous value of 585,000 units
- Richmond US Fed Manufacturing Index reported -8 in August, expected -6, previously 0
- EURPreliminary value of the August district consumer confidence index reported – 24.9, expected – 28, previous value – 27
Wall Street Analysis:
Richard Hunter, Head of Markets at Interactive Investor, said the current global market sentiment is both easily frightening and unstable, there is little reason to be optimistic in the short term, and the silver lining of the economy has not yet formed. a sustainable basis.
Monica Defend, director of the Amundi Institute, said Fed officials at last year’s Jackson Hole annual meeting said the inflation forecast was temporary and confused investors, but that price hikes were becoming more and more. taller. The longer it goes on, the wider the scope of influence.
While corporate earnings are showing some resilience, margins will come under pressure throughout the year, Defend said. Defend estimates,EURUSD / USD will drop further to 0.96 by December as Europe’s economic outlook is dim and the US’sEURThe zones are on two different tracks.
Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer, said the near-term outlook for equities remains difficult, the impact of the quantitative squeeze on financial markets has yet to materialize and the earnings-cutting cycle has just begun.
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