US Stock Diary｜Three major indexes report gains for six consecutive weeks, Bitcoin rises for three consecutive weeks

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell first and then rose, with all three indexes rising for six consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 index closed firmly above 4,600 points, its highest closing point since March 2022. The non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations, and the market expected that the Federal Reserve would delay the pace of interest rate cuts. U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded across the board, and gold fell in response. Bitcoin has risen nearly 13% this week and has risen for three consecutive weeks.

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Real-time quotations of U.S. stocks and foreign currencies, multi-country news

Market conditions on December 8 (Friday)

l The Dow Jones index rose 130.49 points, or 0.36%, to 36,247.87 points. It rose 0.01% this week.

l The S&P 500 index rose 18.78 points, or 0.41%, to 4,604.37 points. It rose 0.21% this week.

l The Nasdaq index rose 63.98 points, or 0.45%, to 14,403.97 points. It rose 0.69% this week.

l New York January oil futures closed at US$71.23 a barrel, up US$1.89 or 2.73%. It fell 3.83% this week.

l New York February gold futures closed at $2,014.5 an ounce, down $31.9, or 1.56%. It fell 3.3% this week.

l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.245%, up 11.6 points.

All three major indexes recorded gains for the sixth consecutive week this week. However, the Dow rose only 2.87 points from last Friday’s closing price, with a cumulative gain of less than 0.01% over the week. The S&P 500 Index has risen about 20% year to date, hitting a new closing high this year, and has returned to the level in March 2022.

Investors are betting that the economy will avoid recession. The stock prices of Boeing, FedEx and Costco all hit new highs this year during the trading session. Boeing closed up 3.1%, but Costco closed down 0.03%, and FedEx closed down 0.1%.

Marko Kolanovic, chief global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said that even if there is no economic recession in 2024, it will be difficult for the stock market to continue to rise without significantly lowering interest rates.

“This is a dilemma. When monetary policy is at a restrictive level, risk assets cannot continue to rebound, but unless there is an adjustment in risk assets or inflation declines due to economic weakness and other reasons, decisive easing policies may not be adopted. But in In that case, it will also hurt corporate profits,” Kolanovic wrote in the report. “This means we need to see some market decline and volatility first in 2024 before we can ease monetary policy and achieve a more sustainable rebound.”

Stimulated by the higher-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have declined, and U.S. Treasury bond interest rates have risen across the board, with the 10-year interest rate rising by 11.6 points and the 30-year interest rate rising by 7.9 points, putting some pressure on the stock market.

The odds of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in March fell to 47.5%, down from 64.5% a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Amid concerns about weak demand, although New York oil futures rose on Friday, they fell about 4% for the week, marking the seventh consecutive week of declines and the longest decline in five years.

Bitcoin indicators are up 12.6% this week, and Ethereum is up nearly 13%, with both coins rising for a third consecutive week.

In terms of data, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that non-farm employment increased by 199,000 in November after seasonally adjustment, compared with expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November, compared with expectations of 3.90%.

Analysts believe that a larger-than-expected increase in employment led to an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate in November, which increases the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time.