by Alessandro Riggio
The person who gets the most votes across the country does not go to the White House, but rather the person who distributed them best to win over at least 270 of the 538 electors. Here’s what can happen on November 5th
Who remembers the 2006 Italian electionswhen Romano Prodi’s Union won in the Chamber by only 24,755 votes against the House of Liberties of Silvio Berlusconi? Here, in the United States, which has five and a half times the inhabitants of Italy, presidential elections are now decided on similar figures.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump for 77,744 votes divided between Michigan, Wisconsin e Pennsylvaniathe equivalent of the inhabitants of Sesto San Giovanni.
In 2020 Joe Biden won over Trump by even less: 65,009 votes Between Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and the Nebraska’s 2nd Districtthat is, how much the population of Viterbo.
In the United States, the candidate who gets the most votes in the whole country does not go to the White House, but rather the one who distributed them best in order to win at least 270 of the 538 electors. During election night it may happen that you don’t immediately understand who is winning: the maps are mostly colored red – the color of the Republicans – thus giving a distorted representation of the result.
Many American states in the hands of Trump’s party in fact, they combine a vast territory and low population density. The Montanafor example, located to the northwest along the Canadian border, is the size of Japan but barely matters 1 million people: it is therefore only up for grabs 4 major voterswhich have gone to the Republicans since 1996. Conversely, a small and populous state like New York assigns 28traditional spoils of the Democrats.
The map created here avoids this problembecause it shows the size of each state for the current number of electors. THE colors indicate who won and by how much in the last two presidential electionsthose with Trump as a candidate, those of the most absolute uncertainty. The following are highlighted in bold 7 states in the balance in this year’s session, where the bulk of the electoral campaign is poured. Harris and Trump’s hopes pass through here.
The crucial question is what needs to happen in these 7 states so that the vice-president or the tycoon. To answer we can probe four scenariosviewable below.
The firstthe starting point for the other three, is made using the poll average updated by the New York Times. According to these data Kamala Harris would become president with 276 electors thanks to the successes in Midwestthe fatal states for Clinton In the 2016 and providential for Biden in 2020 (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), also confirming the NevadaDemocrat from 2008.
Without the Nevadaas indicated in the second hypothesis, Harris would reach precisely quota 270for what would be the narrowest victory in American history, decided by 1 voter taken in a small district of Nebraska. In such a situation, Harris he absolutely could not afford to lose the Pennsylvaniathe most important game of all: no other state in the balance is worth so many electors (19). Trumpby winning it, he would be one step away from White House. In that case, as visible in the third scenarioit would be enough for him North Carolinawhere he has always won, and the Georgialast torn from Biden by a whisker (11,779 votes) later 28 years of republican rule. It is politically easier for the former president to prevail here, in the southern states of Sun Beltthan it is for Harris In the Midwest.
Trump’s electoral strength is evident, and it is certainly nothing new. «Those who still think that their voters are only the less educated whites are wrong – they explain Luiss professors Roberto D’Alimonte and Lorenzo De Siorespectively founder and director of Italian Center for Electoral Studies -. Who votes Trump he often does so because he considers him more credible on the economy and immigration”, topics that the former president was able to redefine on the American political agenda “in protectionist terms. His tariff policy, breaking with traditional free trade positions, also continued with Biden. The result is that Democrats today find themselves in similar positions.” TO Kamala Harris weighs on “not having expressed clear recipes on the economy and being the incumbent, or being part of the outgoing administration”, where the The president’s approval rate is at 38.8%.
If these negative judgments prevail, Trump could even win all the swing states. It is the fourth and final scenario, certainly the most unlikely. It is more likely that something new will happen instead: Trump may be closer to Harris in the popular vote than he was to Clinton and Bidenfrom which he had suffered a large gap (in order: 2.8 and 7 million votes). It is a fact to reflect on: the consensus of Donald Trumpin the last remnants of the electoral campaign, seems more nationalized, yet beyond the majority of Americans continue to have a negative opinion of him. A contradiction, which gives space to a thousand possibilities, cas can only happen in the United States.
