JPMorgan Chase & Co. has issued its most pessimistic forecast yet on its price target, as Wall Street strategists predict the S&P 500 index will reach a new all-time high next year. , which sets us apart from other major financial institutions.
Dubravko Lakosbuhas and Marko Kolanovic predicted in a note to clients on Monday that the S&P 500 is on track to fall to 4,200 by the end of 2024, about 8% from current levels. He also mentioned geopolitical risks, such as a slowdown in global growth and a decline in household savings, as well as heightened policy uncertainty with elections scheduled in many countries, including the U.S. presidential election.
JPMorgan strategists had a similarly pessimistic outlook for U.S. stock prices heading into 2023. However, this year, stocks are on track for double-digit appreciation on an annual basis, backed by the solid U.S. economy.
“With a general reversal in investor positions and sentiment, and weakening trends in consumer spending, the macro outlook for stock prices in the coming year will be significant, unless the U.S. Federal Reserve takes immediate steps toward easing,” Lacos-Bujas et al. wrote in a report. The situation is expected to become even more severe.”
Meanwhile, Savita Subramanian of Bank of America (BofA) and Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank predict that the S&P 500 will reach over 5,000 next year, while David Kostin of Goldman Sachs Group We believe that the stock price will at least approach its all-time high.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has maintained a bearish stance, has become more positive about the outlook for stock prices, predicting that the S&P 500 will be at 4,500 at the end of 2024. The average forecast of strategists covered by Bloomberg is currently around 4,664, with JPMorgan’s forecast being the lowest.
JPMorgan said the consensus forecast, which assumes a rapid reacceleration of the economy, appears too high given the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher and for longer.
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Original title:JPMorgan’s S&P 500 Outlook for 2024 Is Grimmest on Wall Street(excerpt)
2023-11-30 00:15:35
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