The short version
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is extending his trip to the Middle East due to the tense situation.
- The situation in the Middle East remains dangerous and unpredictable, with the risk of major regional war, even if neither side wants a major escalation.
- Blinken also seeks to pressure Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza and a de-escalation of the conflict. But there is little reason for optimism, says an American expert.
Sea view
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling in the Middle East and has already visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar.
On Tuesday evening he arrived in Israel. There he will discuss a proposal for one possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
At the same time, he follows up the outcome of the US’s increasingly heated conflict with Iran-backed militias in the Middle East.
On Tuesday, VG was confirmed via sources in Washington DC that his trip will be extended. Blinken should have returned to the American capital, and among other things had a meeting with Norway’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide, on Thursday this week.
But the tense situation in the Middle East is too demanding.
MEET THE SHEIKH: Blinken and Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Qatar. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / AP / NTB
– Blinken has a very difficult task. President Joe Biden has been clear that there may be more retaliatory attacks against Iranian-backed militias, while the US does not want an escalation, Aaron David Miller explains to VG.
Historian and Middle East expert Miller was for 20 years an adviser to the US foreign ministers, and negotiated in the Israel/Palestine conflict.
This is how it has developed
This has happened in the last week:
- On January 28, three American soldiers were killed by a drone in Jordan. The US vowed revenge, quickly blaming Iranian-backed militias.
- On February 2, the United States carried out 85 airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. The next day, targets in Yemen were attacked.
- US President Joe Biden emphasizes that there may be more attacks, “when and where” it suits the US.
- At the same time, Blinken is in the region to mitigate the situation, and try to get an agreement between Israel and Hamas in place.
– One should have low expectations for an early peaceful solution. The situation in the Middle East is very difficult, very dangerous and very unpredictable. It will be that way for a long time to come, says Miller to VG.
Also read: Joe Biden’s Israel problem: – No way out
Intelligence can decide
– What does it mean when President Joe Biden says there may be new attacks, if the US thinks it is necessary?
– The development going forward depends on the assessment the USA makes of the damage it has already inflicted on the Iranian-backed militias. They will look at intelligence and assess what capacity these militias still have. At the same time, the US receives messages through intermediaries about how Iran perceives this, Miller estimates.
EKSPERT: Aaron David Miller Foto: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Despite the dangerous situation, Miller does not believe in a full-scale war now. For the simple reason that neither party wants such an escalation. It is interpreted to mean that the US has already sent that signal, by not attacking targets inside Iran itself.
Iran wholeheartedly supports the Shiite Muslim militia and political movement Hezbollah in Lebanon, which in turn supports Hamas in Gaza.
The United States has been Israel’s strongest supporter during the war in Gaza.
Iran supports Shiite Muslim groups in Iraq and Syria that have attacked US targets more than 150 times since the war in Gaza broke out, the US claims.
– Iran has clients in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Iran wants to push the US out of the region. At the same time, Israel is struggling to achieve its goals in the war in Gaza. And the US is struggling with criticism from countries all over the world, summarizes Miller.
Also read: American expert: This is why the US supports Israel’s war
The expert believes the following scenario could mean regional war:
– If an Iranian-backed militia kills a large number of American soldiers, or attacks an American embassy, there will be retaliation directly against Iran. Then Iran can again respond with attacks on American bases, on Israel and on Saudi Arabian oil production.
– When the situation is as tense as it is now, there is always a danger that a major regional war could break out, even if neither party really wants a major escalation.
FOREIGN MINISTER: Antony Blinken’s journey in the Middle East continues. Here he is in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday. Photo: POOL / Reuters / NTB
Want humanitarian aid in
The tense situation between the US and Iran is linked to the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
There is a proposal for a ceasefire on the table, but neither party has committed.
This is Blinken’s fifth trip to the region since Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October. At least 1,200 were killed. In Israel’s subsequent warfare in Gaza, over 27,500 people are said to have died, according to the health authorities in Gaza.
Miller explains that Blinken wants to pressure Israel to let in more humanitarian aid to Gaza, he wants a de-escalation of the entire conflict, and he wants to get an agreement in place that involves a ceasefire.
– But everything depends on Israeli hostages being exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. And Hamas will ask for hundreds, perhaps thousands, of prisoners. Also prisoners responsible for deadly attacks on Israel. It will take a long time for the Israeli authorities to accept the demands, Miller believes
At the same time, an internal Israeli report shows according to the New York Timesthat at least 32 of the 136 remaining hostages are believed to be dead.
WITH THE CROWN PRINCE: Blinken in a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. Photo: – / AFP / NTB
Qatar: Positive response
Qatar’s Prime Minister says on Tuesday evening that he has received a positive response from Hamas to an agreement on the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a ceasefire in the war in Gaza, NTB reports.
Blinken said at a press conference in Qatar that the US is reviewing the response, and that he will discuss it with Israel later this week.
– There is still a lot of work to be done, but we still believe that an agreement is possible, and indeed absolutely necessary, Blinken said, adding that the proposal is the best hope for ending the four-month-long war.
More about the agreement in the fact box below:
Possible agreement between Hamas and Israel
- Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abulrahman al-Thani of Qatar said on Tuesday that the response to the draft is “generally positive”, although Hamas has some comments.
- The Israeli Prime Minister’s office states that they have received the answer from Hamas, and the Mossad intelligence service is reviewing the details.
- At the same time, Hamas stated that their response is positive, and that the agreement includes a permanent ceasefire to end the war, humanitarian aid, reconstruction in Gaza, an end to the blockade and the exchange of prisoners and hostages.
- However, according to Haaretz, a high-ranking Israeli official says that Hamas’s response is in reality negative because Hamas’ conditions are unacceptable to Israel.
- Another Israeli source says that both sides “have made it clear that it is currently not possible to bridge the most important gap that prevents a solution – namely the demand to end the war.”
- Qatar, Israel, the United States and Egypt have been working for several weeks to prepare the framework for an agreement which entails the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for Israel and Hamas agreeing to a longer ceasefire.
Sea view
Don’t have any good answers
– The US wants an Israeli de-escalation in Gaza. President Biden shares several of Israel’s concerns, but disagrees with the Israeli tactics. The problem is that the US has no good answers to the problems Israel believes it has in Gaza, Miller explains, and lists three challenges:
In the long term, the US wants to facilitate a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and pressure Israel to accept a Palestinian state.
– But none of this can happen until Israel and Hamas enter into a temporary agreement, points out Miller.
HIGH DEATH TOLL: A man looks at the bodies of what are believed to be dead relatives at a hospital in Gaza. Photo: Adel Hana / AP / NTB
Huge problems in the region
The expert believes that Israel may agree to a pause in hostilities, but will not agree to a final end to the war.
Israel wants to create a buffer zone in a large part of Gaza, but Hamas will not be defeated anyway.
Miller believes that the problems in the Middle East are constantly growing, seen through American eyes:
– The Middle East is a broken and furious region. Five countries – Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Libya – are all at various stages of disintegration. Iran is probably only a few months away from being able to produce its own nuclear weapons.
– At the same time, Israel has the most extreme government in the country’s history, and is making plans to expand into the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is weaker than ever. The war in Gaza is nowhere near a final solution, he concludes.
2024-02-06 23:00:39
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