Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov suggests talks will start in January. It is about an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and even rolling back NATO activities from its eastern members such as Poland and the Baltic states.
At the beginning of next year, Russia and the USA will begin negotiations to defuse the current security and military critical situation in Eastern Europe – at least that was announced by Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, on Wednesday. The talks will also focus on Western security guarantees vis-à-vis Russia.
For weeks, large concentrations of Russian troops in some positions near the eastern Ukrainian border and in the north of the Crimean peninsula, i.e. south of Ukraine, have been causing nervousness there and in NATO, which has a partnership with it. From military circles it is said here and there that a major military action against Ukraine in January or February is more or less likely.
A question of strength
So far there has been talk of at least 100,000 Russian soldiers near the border. However, in view of the potential size of the fighting area, the distribution of these forces over at least three operational axes and the necessary dilution of attacking associations in the course of advances, that is not really much. In an emergency it depends on the geographic intent of the attacker with regard to the combat area, what should or can be achieved with such forces. However, it was also recently said that the Russians could very quickly bring their operational forces to more than 175,000 men.
Russia denies any offensive intent. Rather, it is said from the Kremlin that they see themselves threatened by the presence or transfer of troops from other NATO countries to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Romania. In addition, there is NATO’s ongoing flagging with ships in the Black Sea and – above all – the West’s military support for Ukraine and Georgia.
President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he saw no room for indulgence in this dispute with the West, particularly over Ukraine and Georgia. One may be forced to a “sharp reaction” if the West does not give up “its aggressive line”. Ultimately, it is about legally binding commitments by NATO or security guarantees.
The NATO leaders in Brussels and Washington have already published lists of demands and even a complete draft treaty. Overall, Moscow is calling for an end to the delivery of certain weapons to Georgia and Ukraine and an end to NATO activities with troops and trainers there.
Reversing NATO to the state before 1997?
States that were once part of the USSR should not be allowed to join NATO again. This currently applies primarily to Ukraine and Georgia. In addition, NATO should also stop or, in certain respects, limit its military operations in those of its current eastern member states that have joined it in the course of NATO’s eastward expansion since 1997 (or de facto since 1999). From a geographical perspective of Russia in the narrower sense, this would certainly affect the three Baltic republics, Poland and Romania, but also Hungary, Slovakia and even the Czech Republic. If you fix it solely on the date of NATO accession, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia would also be affected.
So far, NATO has only said that it is ready for “meaningful talks”. To what extent a military alliance can and wants to commit itself to de facto downgrading some of its member states to purely formal contractual members in whose territory no or only certain activities in peacetime, Maneuvers and the like of the other allies are allowed, is an open question.
(Reuters/swg)
–
