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US Price Inflation Rises for Second Consecutive Month: Statistics and Analysis

Despite the falling trend in recent months, price inflation in the US is now rising for the second month in a row.

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PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditure) came in at 3.5 percent for August compared to the same month last year, according to recent figures from United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In advance, economists expected inflation to rise to 3.5 per cent in August on an annual basis, up from 3.3 per cent in July.

Over the past year, PCE inflation has fallen from what was a peak last summer. If you disregard the inflation in July and June, the level has not been this low since March 2021.

Core inflation falls

Last month, however, prices for both goods, services, foodstuffs and energy rose from the July level. The latter was the one that pulled up the most, with a whopping 6.1 per cent increase.

On an annual basis, energy prices are still down 3.6 per cent from the same period last year, while food prices have increased by 3.1 per cent.

Core PCE inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, fell to 3.9 percent year-on-year last month, down from 4.3 percent in July. This was also in line with what the economists expected in advance.

Threatened by shutdown

PCE inflation PCE inflation CPI inflation and PCE inflation both measure price changes for consumers. However, PCE inflation is broader in scope and takes into account price changes throughout the output of the economy, as well as changes in costs to consumers. is the Federal Reserve’s preferred way of measuring inflation.

But whether there will be figures for September is unclear. The reason is that the USA is once again threatened with shutdown, this time at the federal level.

If Congress does not agree on the budget for next year, updated figures on the development of the American economy may be one of the things missing.

In addition, it will mean, among other things, non-payment of wages for public employees and major disruptions in air traffic, according to the report CNN.

Expect fewer cuts

Last week, the US central bank chose to keep the interest rate unchanged within the range of 5.25-5.50 per cent. It is the highest interest rate level in the US in 22 years.

A majority of the members of the Fed committee expected that there is a need for one more rate hike this year. At the same time, the central bank’s forecasts showed two interest rate cuts next year. Previous forecasts called for four cuts.

– There is a lot of uncertainty around when the interest rate cuts will come. The forecasts for 2024 are only forecasts, nothing more, central bank governor Jerome Powell said at the press conference after the decision.

2023-09-29 12:30:18
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