As former President Donald Trump‘s chances of being re-elected increase, the dollar and Bitcoin bull market is unfolding./Newsis
With the U.S. presidential election (November 5, local time) just 9 days away, Bitcoin and the dollar are continuing to strengthen as the chances of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, being re-elected increase. The market is expecting a further rise if candidate Trump is elected.
According to foreign media on the 27th, multiple opinion polls showed that former President Donald Trump was ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
CNBC surveyed 1,000 voters nationwide from the 15th to the 19th (local time) and found that 48% of respondents supported candidate Trump and 46% supported candidate Harris. Even when narrowed down to respondents from seven battleground states, candidate Trump received higher support than candidate Harris, 48% to 47%.
In a poll released by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 24th, 47% of respondents supported candidate Trump and 45% supported candidate Harris. In the same opinion poll conducted last August, candidate Harris was ahead by 2 percentage points, but the reversal took place within two months.
According to the results of a public opinion poll released by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the national approval ratings for the two candidates were the same at 48% to 48%. In a survey earlier this month, Vice President Harris was ahead by 3 percentage points, but the gap has now disappeared.
As the possibility of presidential candidate Trump being elected is gaining weight, the ‘Trump trade’ market is in full swing.
According to the Seoul foreign exchange market, on the 25th, the won and dollar recorded 1388.7 won, up 8.5 won from the previous day. The won and dollar rose to 1390.6 won at one point on this day, hitting the 1390 won range for the first time in about three months since July 19 (1390.50 won). The won-dollar exchange rate has soared by nearly 100 won in the past month (the value of the won has plummeted).
Geopolitical risks are the reason for the rise in the won and dollar, but presidential candidate Trump’s return to power is also a factor causing the dollar to strengthen.
Candidate Trump has pledged expansionary fiscal policies, such as imposing large-scale tariffs on other countries and issuing large amounts of government bonds, which stimulates economic optimism and inflation in the United States. This is leading to a possible delay in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is why the dollar is strengthening.
Additionally, the price of Bitcoin, which is also classified as a ‘Trump asset’, is also showing a bull market.
Bitcoin fell to $59,400 early this month due to the threat of war in the Middle East and concerns about U.S. inflation, but began to recover starting on the 10th. Afterwards, it recorded $69,000 on the 21st and is currently trading in the $67,000 range due to profit taking.
Since candidate Trump declared that he will ‘become the Bitcoin president,’ the analysis is that the higher the probability of candidate Trump’s election, the more positive it will be for the rise of Bitcoin.
The market predicts that if candidate Trump is elected, the strength of the dollar and Bitcoin will continue until the end of the year.
Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, said, “Uncertainties related to the U.S. presidential election are likely to exert additional upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar for the time being. If former President Trump is elected, the won-dollar exchange rate is likely to exceed 1,400 won again.” He said.
An official in the virtual asset industry said, “It shows that the rise in Bitcoin prices is becoming more certain as the U.S. presidential election gets closer.” He added, “Recently, transaction volume is increasing and the possibility of candidate Trump being elected is increasing, so it is a foregone conclusion that it will exceed 100 million in November.” .
