Leading indicators once again confirm the ongoing recovery
economy. However, financial markets pay the most attention medical the state of the US President and his reports on the need for fiscal stimulus. With approaching me elections policy impact on markets is likely to grow. German factory orders continue to grow, but foreign demand remains weak. Crown
at the beginning of the week it strengthens and the rise in rates indicates that it could return to stronger values from last week. Eurodollars will be in elections to manage the preferences of individual candidates for the next American president.
German factory orders are growing
For August, we expect a further increase in German factory orders by 4.6% m / m, which would mean an overall return just slightly below last year ‘s level. The main drivers remain the home companies, while foreign demand continues to decline (4.3% m / m). Short – term outlook for German industry however, it continues to improve with growing orders and low inventory levels.
Hungarian industrial production in July it grew significantly compared to the previous month, but still remains 7.7% lower year on year. For August, however, the markets expect slower growth than in July, but the year-on-year decline should decrease.
Crown strengthens with hope for more profits
Leading indicators released yesterday SMEs with euro area generally surprised the market positively, with an upward revision in a number of countries.
On the contrary, the October Sentix dropped surprisingly little despite the deteriorating pandemic situation. He also pleased the American ISM index of services. However, yesterday the financial markets paid particular attention medical the state of the American president and his report on the need to enforce the fiscal package planned by the local government. Overall, the mood in the markets was positive, which benefited in particular euro. It got closer during the day border 1,18 USD/EUR and returned to the strongest levels since mid-September. In connection with rising rates in the region, it benefited slightly from this
crown i Polish zloty. They both scored about 0.2%. Crown today opens at 27.07 for euro. Plus yesterday’s increase in koruna rates, resp. The decline in the euro indicates that it would crown could return to stronger values from last week to the area of 26.90 / 27.00. On the other hand, the non-improving pandemic situation and the threat of widespread closure economy it is likely to continue to upset and defend investors crown in its more significant strengthening.
In our opinion, the Eurodollar will be governed in the coming weeks mainly by the preferences of US presidential candidates. Given that we see a greater chance of winning J. Biden, we assume that he will benefit more from this situation euro. Generally coming elections may mean greater market volatility. We are more American elections and their impact on the financial markets were discussed here https://bit.ly/2Sghrht.
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Author: František Táborský
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