To this end, Putin can organize a hybrid operation in the Baltic States, where many ethnic Russians live, Aaron said. “We tend to repeat what worked. Political scientists call it the ‘path of addiction,'” the professor writes.
According to him, in a situation that is perhaps even more pressing politically and economically than in 2012 and 2013, and in the wake of the so-called “Crimean Consensus”, Putin can resort to what he has done well in the past – a short victorious war, warns Aaron.
He recalls that Putin reached the highest rating – 88% – in September 2008 after a five-day war with Georgia.
Among the factors that may prompt the Kremlin host to do so, the political scientist cites Putin’s vomiting to become “president for life” while Russia is experiencing economic stagnation, pandemics and mass protests following the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
According to Aaron, Putin could decide to attack one of its neighbors. He points out that Russian troops are already stationed on the borders of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, that Belarus is already a “formally united state” and that there are 3.5 million Russians in Kazakhstan, more than in any of Russia’s neighbors except Ukraine. In addition, ethnic Russians are concentrated in the border areas with Russia in Kazakhstan.
However, these countries, in Aaron’s opinion, do not correspond to Putin’s ambitions. Instead, Russia could carry out a hybrid operation similar to the occupation of Crimea in one of the Baltic states. According to Aaron, the most likely targets are the East Viru district of Estonia, where 74% of the population are ethnic Russians, and the largest city in the county, Narva, where the proportion of ethnic Russians is 83%, or Latgale, where the proportion of ethnic Russians is 36%, and Daugavpils, where ethnic Russians make up 48% of the population.
The professor points out that, according to US General John Nicholson, NATO needs 90 days to deploy its forces to the Baltic states, while the operation in Crimea took Russia only about three weeks.
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