US Memorial Day Holiday Causes Statistical Shifts & Strong Economic Reports on Thursday

It’s the fault of Monday’s holiday in the United States for Memorial Day! With this “off” day across the Atlantic at the start of the week, the statistics calendar has been turned upside down and this Thursday’s program is reinforced with figures that were to be published the day before.

This is particularly the case with the figures forprivate sector employment for the month of May, expected for 2:15 p.m., a quarter of an hour before the traditional weekly jobless claims and just one day before the official data from the Department of Labor. The Bloomberg consensus expects 170,000 job creations, after 296,000 in April, while benefit applications should remain close to their levels of the previous week, at 235,000 against 229,000.

At 2:30 p.m., we will also be informed of the figures for the productivity of the first quarter in final data (-2.5% expected). The index will follow at 3:45 p.m. Manufacturing PMI of the month of May, also in the latest estimate (48.5 points in preliminary) then, scrutinized more by investors for its deeper history, theISM in industry of the past month. The consensus is counting on a stabilization, at 47 points, against 47.1 in April, while remaining below the 50-point threshold which marks the border between expansion and contraction of activity. At 4 p.m., it will be construction expenses for the month of April and, one hour later (another statistic with a one-day shift), weekly oil inventories.

Watch out for “core” inflation in the euro zone

In the euro zone, eyes will be wide open at 11 a.m. for new data relating to theinflation. Important figures insofar as these are the very first of May, preliminary data. According to the same Bloomberg consensus, some appeasement is hoped for. Consumer prices would have increased by only 0.2% compared to April, after an increase of 0.6% the previous month, which would reduce the increase over one year to 6.3%, against 7%. But excluding the volatile elements of food and energy, even in the “core” version, inflation should have remained very tenacious, as in the United States, at 5.5% over one year, after 5.6% in April. Before the opening in Europe will have been published the PMI Caixin index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector for May.

On the business side, Remy Cointreau presents its annual results. Net profit is expected around 290 million euros (+36%), according to FactSet, for a turnover already published of 1.56 billion. The update on the trends given for 2023-2024, above all, should dictate the reaction of the stock market.